KMSP / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST96%Oct 11 · 03:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

95%

89%

86%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 92.8¢Risks 46.40u

ICONNO 7.2¢Risks 3.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +3.60u · ICON −3.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T03:44:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-05T07:42:25+00:00	80.5%	44.5%	0.9%	91.4%	1.2%
2026-10-05T08:28:17+00:00	80.5%	44.5%	0.9%	91.4%	1.2%
2026-10-05T09:13:31+00:00	80.5%	44.5%	0.9%	91.4%	1.2%
2026-10-05T09:58:37+00:00	80.5%	44.5%	0.9%	91.4%	1.2%
2026-10-05T10:43:43+00:00	80.5%	44.5%	0.9%	91.4%	1.2%
2026-10-05T11:28:57+00:00	80.5%	47.6%	23.2%	91.4%	1.2%
2026-10-05T12:14:17+00:00	80.5%	47.6%	23.2%	91.4%	1.2%
2026-10-05T12:59:30+00:00	80.5%	47.6%	23.2%	91.4%	1.2%
2026-10-05T13:44:49+00:00	55.0%	47.6%	23.2%	91.4%	1.2%
2026-10-05T14:34:14+00:00	55.0%	47.6%	23.2%	91.4%	1.2%
2026-10-05T15:19:23+00:00	55.0%	47.6%	23.2%	91.4%	1.2%
2026-10-05T16:04:45+00:00	55.0%	47.6%	23.2%	91.4%	1.2%
2026-10-05T16:50:29+00:00	55.0%	47.6%	23.2%	91.4%	1.2%
2026-10-05T17:35:36+00:00	55.0%	47.6%	13.6%	91.4%	1.2%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00	55.0%	47.6%	13.6%	91.4%	1.2%
2026-10-05T19:05:50+00:00	55.0%	47.6%	13.6%	91.4%	1.2%
2026-10-05T19:50:57+00:00	51.4%	47.6%	13.6%	91.4%	2.6%
2026-10-05T20:36:06+00:00	51.4%	47.6%	13.6%	91.4%	2.6%
2026-10-05T21:21:25+00:00	51.4%	47.6%	13.6%	91.4%	2.6%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00	51.4%	47.6%	13.6%	91.4%	2.6%
2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00	51.4%	47.6%	13.6%	91.4%	2.6%
2026-10-05T23:36:44+00:00	51.4%	48.0%	8.7%	91.4%	2.5%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00	51.4%	48.0%	8.7%	91.4%	2.5%
2026-10-06T01:07:04+00:00	51.4%	48.0%	8.7%	91.4%	2.5%
2026-10-06T01:52:10+00:00	64.0%	48.0%	8.7%	91.4%	2.5%
2026-10-06T02:37:20+00:00	64.0%	48.0%	8.7%	91.4%	2.5%
2026-10-06T03:22:28+00:00	64.0%	48.0%	8.7%	91.4%	2.5%
2026-10-06T04:07:57+00:00	64.0%	48.0%	8.7%	91.4%	2.5%
2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00	64.0%	48.0%	8.7%	91.4%	2.5%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00	64.0%	48.0%	20.8%	91.4%	2.5%
2026-10-06T06:23:53+00:00	64.0%	48.0%	20.8%	91.4%	2.5%
2026-10-06T07:08:59+00:00	64.0%	48.0%	20.8%	91.4%	2.5%
2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00	24.8%	48.0%	20.8%	91.4%	1.8%
2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00	24.8%	48.0%	20.8%	91.4%	1.8%
2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00	24.8%	48.0%	20.8%	91.4%	1.8%
2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00	24.8%	48.0%	20.8%	91.4%	1.8%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00	24.8%	48.0%	20.8%	91.4%	1.8%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00	24.8%	59.3%	0.3%	91.4%	1.8%
2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00	24.8%	59.3%	0.3%	91.4%	1.8%
2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00	24.8%	59.3%	0.3%	91.4%	1.8%
2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00	5.6%	59.3%	0.3%	91.4%	1.8%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00	5.8%	59.3%	0.3%	91.4%	1.8%
2026-10-06T15:29:31+00:00	5.8%	59.3%	0.3%	91.4%	1.8%
2026-10-06T16:15:04+00:00	5.8%	59.3%	0.3%	91.4%	1.8%
2026-10-06T17:00:14+00:00	5.8%	59.3%	0.3%	91.4%	1.8%
2026-10-06T17:45:23+00:00	5.8%	59.3%	0.1%	91.4%	1.8%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00	5.8%	59.3%	0.1%	91.4%	1.8%
2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:00	5.8%	59.3%	0.1%	91.4%	1.8%
2026-10-06T20:01:29+00:00	5.8%	59.3%	0.1%	22.0%	1.3%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00	5.8%	59.3%	0.1%	22.0%	1.3%
2026-10-06T21:32:39+00:00	5.8%	59.3%	0.1%	22.0%	1.3%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00	5.8%	59.3%	0.1%	22.0%	1.3%
2026-10-06T23:03:05+00:00	5.8%	59.7%	0.3%	22.0%	1.3%
2026-10-06T23:48:43+00:00	5.8%	59.7%	0.3%	22.0%	1.3%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00	5.8%	59.7%	0.3%	22.0%	1.3%
2026-10-07T01:19:16+00:00	5.8%	59.7%	0.3%	22.0%	1.3%
2026-10-07T04:20:27+00:00	0.2%	59.7%	0.3%	22.0%	1.3%
2026-10-08T05:22:47+00:00	0.3%	74.3%	2.7%	21.8%	0.7%
2026-10-08T06:07:59+00:00	0.3%	74.3%	2.7%	21.8%	0.7%
2026-10-08T06:53:04+00:00	0.3%	74.3%	2.7%	21.8%	0.7%
2026-10-08T07:38:45+00:00	5.2%	74.3%	2.7%	81.6%	1.2%
2026-10-08T08:24:45+00:00	5.2%	74.3%	2.7%	81.6%	1.2%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	5.2%	74.3%	2.7%	81.6%	1.2%
2026-10-08T09:54:58+00:00	5.2%	74.3%	2.7%	81.6%	1.2%
2026-10-08T10:40:05+00:00	5.2%	74.3%	2.7%	81.6%	1.2%
2026-10-08T11:25:24+00:00	5.2%	98.6%	84.8%	81.6%	1.2%
2026-10-08T12:10:44+00:00	5.2%	98.6%	84.8%	81.6%	1.2%
2026-10-08T12:55:51+00:00	5.2%	98.6%	84.8%	81.6%	1.2%
2026-10-08T13:41:14+00:00	25.7%	98.6%	84.8%	81.6%	1.2%
2026-10-08T14:30:27+00:00	25.7%	98.4%	84.8%	81.6%	1.3%
2026-10-08T15:16:02+00:00	25.7%	98.4%	84.8%	81.6%	1.3%
2026-10-08T16:01:34+00:00	25.7%	98.4%	84.8%	81.6%	1.3%
2026-10-08T16:46:40+00:00	25.7%	98.4%	84.8%	81.6%	1.3%
2026-10-08T17:31:46+00:00	25.7%	98.4%	84.8%	81.6%	1.3%
2026-10-08T18:16:51+00:00	25.7%	98.4%	84.8%	81.6%	1.3%
2026-10-08T19:01:56+00:00	25.7%	98.4%	84.8%	81.6%	1.3%
2026-10-08T19:47:04+00:00	12.9%	98.4%	84.8%	46.8%	25.8%
2026-10-08T20:32:14+00:00	12.9%	98.4%	84.8%	46.8%	25.8%
2026-10-08T21:17:26+00:00	12.9%	98.4%	84.8%	46.8%	25.8%
2026-10-08T22:02:32+00:00	12.9%	98.4%	84.8%	46.8%	25.8%
2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00	12.9%	98.4%	84.8%	46.8%	25.8%
2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00	12.9%	98.4%	15.2%	46.8%	25.8%
2026-10-09T00:17:57+00:00	12.9%	98.4%	15.2%	46.8%	25.8%
2026-10-09T01:03:09+00:00	12.9%	98.4%	15.2%	46.8%	25.8%
2026-10-09T01:48:23+00:00	23.6%	98.4%	15.2%	46.8%	25.8%
2026-10-09T02:33:35+00:00	23.6%	98.4%	15.2%	46.8%	25.8%
2026-10-09T03:19:13+00:00	23.6%	98.4%	15.2%	46.8%	25.8%
2026-10-09T04:05:08+00:00	23.6%	98.4%	15.2%	46.8%	25.8%
2026-10-09T04:50:14+00:00	23.6%	98.4%	15.2%	46.8%	25.8%
2026-10-09T05:35:21+00:00	23.6%	98.4%	28.5%	46.8%	25.8%
2026-10-09T06:20:28+00:00	23.6%	98.4%	28.5%	46.8%	25.8%
2026-10-09T07:05:34+00:00	23.6%	98.4%	28.5%	46.8%	25.8%
2026-10-09T07:51:20+00:00	16.0%	98.4%	28.5%	55.3%	0.2%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00	16.0%	98.4%	28.5%	55.3%	0.2%
2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00	16.0%	98.4%	28.5%	55.3%	0.2%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00	16.0%	98.4%	28.5%	55.3%	0.2%
2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00	16.0%	98.4%	28.5%	55.3%	0.2%
2026-10-09T11:37:44+00:00	16.0%	98.4%	28.5%	55.3%	0.2%
2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00	16.0%	99.5%	28.5%	55.3%	0.2%
2026-10-09T13:08:27+00:00	16.0%	99.5%	28.5%	55.3%	0.2%
2026-10-09T13:53:33+00:00	44.5%	99.5%	28.5%	55.3%	0.2%
2026-10-09T14:42:09+00:00	44.5%	99.4%	28.5%	55.3%	0.2%
2026-10-09T15:27:33+00:00	44.5%	99.5%	28.5%	55.3%	0.2%
2026-10-09T16:13:18+00:00	44.5%	99.5%	28.5%	55.3%	0.2%
2026-10-09T16:58:28+00:00	44.5%	99.5%	28.5%	55.3%	0.2%
2026-10-09T17:43:34+00:00	44.5%	99.5%	38.3%	55.3%	0.2%
2026-10-09T18:28:40+00:00	44.5%	99.5%	38.3%	55.3%	0.2%
2026-10-09T19:13:45+00:00	44.5%	99.5%	38.3%	55.3%	0.2%
2026-10-09T19:58:55+00:00	47.2%	99.5%	38.3%	65.6%	28.9%
2026-10-09T20:44:03+00:00	47.2%	99.5%	38.3%	65.6%	28.9%
2026-10-09T21:29:21+00:00	47.2%	99.5%	38.3%	65.6%	28.9%
2026-10-09T22:14:38+00:00	47.2%	99.5%	38.3%	65.6%	28.9%
2026-10-09T22:59:44+00:00	47.2%	99.3%	38.3%	65.6%	28.9%
2026-10-09T23:44:50+00:00	47.2%	99.3%	38.3%	65.6%	28.9%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00	47.2%	99.3%	38.3%	65.6%	28.9%
2026-10-10T01:15:16+00:00	47.2%	99.3%	38.3%	65.6%	28.9%
2026-10-10T02:00:45+00:00	87.7%	99.3%	38.3%	65.6%	28.9%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00	87.7%	99.3%	38.3%	65.6%	28.9%
2026-10-10T03:31:23+00:00	87.7%	99.3%	38.3%	65.6%	28.9%
2026-10-10T04:17:18+00:00	87.7%	99.3%	38.3%	65.6%	28.9%
2026-10-10T05:03:06+00:00	87.7%	99.3%	38.3%	65.6%	28.9%
2026-10-10T05:48:16+00:00	87.7%	99.3%	85.8%	65.6%	28.9%
2026-10-10T06:33:22+00:00	87.7%	99.3%	85.8%	65.6%	28.9%
2026-10-10T07:18:27+00:00	87.7%	99.3%	85.8%	65.6%	28.9%
2026-10-10T08:03:34+00:00	86.3%	99.3%	85.8%	65.6%	25.9%
2026-10-10T08:48:40+00:00	86.3%	99.3%	85.8%	65.6%	25.9%
2026-10-10T09:33:45+00:00	86.3%	99.3%	85.8%	65.6%	25.9%
2026-10-10T10:18:59+00:00	86.3%	99.3%	85.8%	65.6%	25.9%
2026-10-10T11:04:06+00:00	86.3%	99.3%	85.8%	65.6%	25.9%
2026-10-10T11:49:15+00:00	86.3%	99.7%	85.8%	65.6%	25.9%
2026-10-10T12:34:21+00:00	86.3%	99.7%	85.8%	65.6%	25.9%
2026-10-10T13:19:26+00:00	86.3%	99.7%	85.8%	65.6%	25.9%
2026-10-10T14:04:56+00:00	92.8%	99.7%	85.0%	65.6%	25.9%
2026-10-10T14:53:55+00:00	92.8%	99.7%	85.0%	65.6%	25.9%
2026-10-10T15:39:29+00:00	92.8%	99.8%	85.0%	65.6%	25.9%
2026-10-10T16:24:39+00:00	92.8%	99.8%	85.0%	65.6%	25.9%
2026-10-10T17:09:46+00:00	92.8%	99.8%	90.7%	65.6%	25.9%
2026-10-10T17:54:59+00:00	92.8%	99.8%	90.7%	65.6%	25.9%
2026-10-10T18:40:22+00:00	92.8%	99.8%	90.7%	65.6%	25.9%
2026-10-10T19:25:34+00:00	92.8%	99.8%	90.7%	65.6%	25.9%
2026-10-10T20:10:43+00:00	80.9%	99.8%	90.7%	65.6%	85.7%
2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00	80.9%	99.8%	90.7%	65.6%	85.7%
2026-10-10T21:41:29+00:00	80.9%	99.8%	90.7%	65.6%	85.7%
2026-10-10T22:27:31+00:00	80.9%	99.8%	90.7%	98.7%	85.7%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	80.9%	99.8%	89.0%	98.7%	85.7%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	81.0%	99.8%	89.0%	98.5%	85.8%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	81.0%	99.8%	89.0%	98.5%	85.8%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	94.6%	99.8%	89.0%	98.5%	85.8%
2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00	94.6%	99.8%	89.0%	98.5%	85.8%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	94.6%	99.8%	89.0%	98.5%	85.8%
2026-10-11T03:44:56+00:00	94.6%	99.8%	89.0%	98.5%	85.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	83.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	98%	83.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	81.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	89%	78.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
ICON	86%	78.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-10 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	75.0°F	9.0°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261012-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 05 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗