KMSP / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST96%Oct 11 · 03:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

95%

89%

86%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 92.8¢Risks 46.40u

ICONNO 7.2¢Risks 3.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +3.60u · ICON −3.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	32.5%	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	40.4%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	45.0%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	2.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	—	8.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.0%	—	62.7%	—	3.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	18.4%	0.0%	21.8%	—	0.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.8%	12.0%	—	2.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	9.5%	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.4%	35.4%	10.9%	—	14.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	0.1%	26.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	13.9%	77.7%	12.4%	—	20.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	0.5%	98.6%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	0.1%	42.3%	46.1%	—	25.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	9.6%	37.2%	—	—	34.4%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	22.7%	40.8%	52.1%	—	35.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.5%	6.8%	45.8%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	29.2%	40.3%	90.1%	—	94.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	75.1%	23.1%	96.5%	7.5%	—	96.5%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	88.4%	96.0%	94.9%	—	96.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	77.5%	84.0%	97.1%	—	99.6%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	97.0%	97.0%	98.6%	100.0%	99.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	94.0%	98.5%	80.0%	—	99.7%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	95.4%	89.3%	61.9%	100.0%	99.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.3%	99.1%	99.9%	51.4%	—	98.7%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	99.3%	99.5%	62.8%	100.0%	99.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	99.8%	100.0%	70.2%	—	99.6%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	99.9%	100.0%	75.0%	100.0%	98.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	99.8%	100.0%	92.1%	—	99.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	83.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	98%	83.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	81.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	89%	78.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
ICON	86%	78.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-10 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	75.0°F	9.0°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261012-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 05 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗