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KMSP / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 08 · 14:30 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
84%
HRES
84%
WN2
75%
AIFS
47%
ICON
47%
Consensus
66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 65.5¢Risks 65.55u
VS
ICONNO 34.5¢Risks 34.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.45u · ICON −34.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 24.2% · 2026-10-08T03:06:46+00:00AIFS Single: 24.2% · 2026-10-08T03:52:33+00:00AIFS Single: 24.2% · 2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00AIFS Single: 24.2% · 2026-10-08T05:22:47+00:00AIFS Single: 24.2% · 2026-10-08T06:07:59+00:00AIFS Single: 24.2% · 2026-10-08T06:53:04+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-08T07:38:45+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-08T08:24:45+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-08T09:54:58+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-08T10:40:05+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-08T11:25:24+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-08T12:10:44+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-08T12:55:51+00:00AIFS Single: 46.7% · 2026-10-08T13:41:14+00:00AIFS Single: 46.7% · 2026-10-08T14:30:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.4% · 2026-10-08T03:06:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.4% · 2026-10-08T03:52:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.4% · 2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.4% · 2026-10-08T05:22:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.4% · 2026-10-08T06:07:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.4% · 2026-10-08T06:53:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.4% · 2026-10-08T07:38:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.4% · 2026-10-08T08:24:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.4% · 2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.4% · 2026-10-08T09:54:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.4% · 2026-10-08T10:40:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.7% · 2026-10-08T11:25:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.7% · 2026-10-08T12:10:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.7% · 2026-10-08T12:55:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.7% · 2026-10-08T13:41:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.5% · 2026-10-08T14:30:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.8% · 2026-10-08T03:06:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.8% · 2026-10-08T03:52:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.8% · 2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.8% · 2026-10-08T05:22:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.8% · 2026-10-08T06:07:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.8% · 2026-10-08T06:53:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.8% · 2026-10-08T07:38:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.8% · 2026-10-08T08:24:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.8% · 2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.8% · 2026-10-08T09:54:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.8% · 2026-10-08T10:40:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.8% · 2026-10-08T11:25:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.8% · 2026-10-08T12:10:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.8% · 2026-10-08T12:55:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.8% · 2026-10-08T13:41:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-08T14:30:27+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-10-08T03:06:46+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-10-08T03:52:33+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-10-08T05:22:47+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-10-08T06:07:59+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-10-08T06:53:04+00:00IFS HRES: 83.8% · 2026-10-08T07:38:45+00:00IFS HRES: 83.8% · 2026-10-08T08:24:45+00:00IFS HRES: 83.8% · 2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00IFS HRES: 83.8% · 2026-10-08T09:54:58+00:00IFS HRES: 83.8% · 2026-10-08T10:40:05+00:00IFS HRES: 83.8% · 2026-10-08T11:25:24+00:00IFS HRES: 83.8% · 2026-10-08T12:10:44+00:00IFS HRES: 83.8% · 2026-10-08T12:55:51+00:00IFS HRES: 83.8% · 2026-10-08T13:41:14+00:00IFS HRES: 83.8% · 2026-10-08T14:30:27+00:00ICON: 64.7% · 2026-10-08T03:06:46+00:00ICON: 64.7% · 2026-10-08T03:52:33+00:00ICON: 64.7% · 2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00ICON: 64.7% · 2026-10-08T05:22:47+00:00ICON: 64.7% · 2026-10-08T06:07:59+00:00ICON: 64.7% · 2026-10-08T06:53:04+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-08T07:38:45+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-08T08:24:45+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-08T09:54:58+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-08T10:40:05+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-08T11:25:24+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-08T12:10:44+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-08T12:55:51+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-08T13:41:14+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-08T14:30:27+00:0010-08 03:0610-08 09:0910-08 14:30
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-08T14:30:27+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-08T03:06:46+00:0024.2%55.4%29.8%39.2%64.7%
2026-10-08T03:52:33+00:0024.2%55.4%29.8%39.2%64.7%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:0024.2%55.4%29.8%39.2%64.7%
2026-10-08T05:22:47+00:0024.2%55.4%37.8%39.2%64.7%
2026-10-08T06:07:59+00:0024.2%55.4%37.8%39.2%64.7%
2026-10-08T06:53:04+00:0024.2%55.4%37.8%39.2%64.7%
2026-10-08T07:38:45+00:0034.2%55.4%37.8%83.8%46.6%
2026-10-08T08:24:45+00:0034.2%55.4%37.8%83.8%46.6%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:0034.2%55.4%37.8%83.8%46.6%
2026-10-08T09:54:58+00:0034.2%55.4%37.8%83.8%46.6%
2026-10-08T10:40:05+00:0034.2%55.4%37.8%83.8%46.6%
2026-10-08T11:25:24+00:0034.2%84.7%74.8%83.8%46.6%
2026-10-08T12:10:44+00:0034.2%84.7%74.8%83.8%46.6%
2026-10-08T12:55:51+00:0034.2%84.7%74.8%83.8%46.6%
2026-10-08T13:41:14+00:0046.7%84.7%74.8%83.8%46.6%
2026-10-08T14:30:27+00:0046.7%84.5%74.9%83.8%46.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble84%67.6°F10.9°F2026-10-08 00:00Pending
IFS HRES84%62.2°F5.8°F2026-10-08 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 275%59.2°F4.0°F2026-10-08 00:00Pending
National Blend59%58.0°F6.6°F2026-10-08 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%57.0°F5.1°F2026-10-08 02:00Pending
AIFS Single47%56.1°F4.9°F2026-10-08 06:00Pending
ICON47%56.0°F5.8°F2026-10-08 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261013-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 08 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 57°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗