KMSP / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 08 · 14:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

84%

75%

47%

47%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 65.5¢Risks 65.55u

ICONNO 34.5¢Risks 34.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.45u · ICON −34.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	92.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	32.5%	—	—	89.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	44.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	38.2%	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	12.3%	—	—	62.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	7.9%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	1.6%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	60.9%	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	4.8%	99.3%	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	52.1%	—	72.0%	—	40.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	62.9%	7.1%	7.1%	—	24.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	43.9%	46.9%	9.3%	—	44.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	27.4%	71.2%	22.4%	—	69.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	78.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	36.9%	81.0%	39.3%	—	79.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	63.4%	97.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	57.8%	85.9%	78.6%	—	74.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	47.3%	57.1%	—	—	59.8%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	68.6%	57.3%	35.6%	—	81.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.0%	73.2%	45.3%	—	—	87.8%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	83.5%	64.3%	98.0%	—	95.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	90.4%	93.4%	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	92.6%	83.7%	95.6%	—	93.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	90.4%	88.9%	—	—	95.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	91.0%	97.9%	97.4%	89.6%	96.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	94.3%	99.7%	85.9%	—	98.8%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	94.6%	99.8%	98.2%	95.5%	98.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	95.7%	100.0%	94.2%	—	98.4%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	92.0%	99.8%	97.2%	97.7%	95.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	98.4%	100.0%	99.1%	—	96.5%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	98.8%	100.0%	96.8%	99.3%	95.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	98.6%	100.0%	94.2%	—	93.3%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	94.9%	99.9%	93.2%	91.1%	91.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	78.7%	99.9%	90.8%	—	88.8%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	72.4%	99.9%	91.1%	75.0%	90.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	85.9%	99.0%	83.0%	—	70.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	84%	67.6°F	10.9°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	84%	62.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	59.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	58.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-08 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	56.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
ICON	47%	56.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261013-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 08 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 57°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗