KMSP / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 08 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

42%

36%

26%

18%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 38.2¢Risks 38.25u

HRESNO 61.8¢Risks 61.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +61.75u · HRES −61.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T02:21:11+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-07T08:09:29+00:00	22.0%	52.7%	54.5%	26.5%	22.4%
2026-10-07T08:54:47+00:00	22.0%	52.7%	54.5%	26.5%	22.4%
2026-10-07T09:39:54+00:00	22.0%	52.7%	54.5%	26.5%	22.4%
2026-10-07T10:25:19+00:00	22.0%	52.7%	54.5%	26.5%	22.4%
2026-10-07T11:10:41+00:00	22.0%	36.4%	52.4%	26.5%	22.4%
2026-10-07T11:56:01+00:00	22.0%	36.4%	52.4%	26.5%	22.4%
2026-10-07T12:41:07+00:00	22.0%	36.4%	52.4%	26.5%	22.4%
2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00	11.8%	36.4%	52.4%	26.5%	22.4%
2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00	11.8%	36.4%	52.4%	26.5%	22.7%
2026-10-07T15:02:41+00:00	11.8%	36.4%	52.4%	26.5%	22.7%
2026-10-07T15:47:47+00:00	11.8%	36.4%	52.4%	26.5%	22.7%
2026-10-07T16:33:26+00:00	11.8%	36.4%	52.4%	26.5%	22.7%
2026-10-07T17:18:47+00:00	11.8%	36.4%	50.0%	26.5%	22.7%
2026-10-07T18:03:55+00:00	11.8%	36.4%	50.0%	26.5%	22.7%
2026-10-07T18:49:01+00:00	11.8%	36.4%	50.0%	26.5%	22.7%
2026-10-07T19:34:11+00:00	21.0%	36.4%	50.0%	17.7%	36.4%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00	21.0%	36.4%	50.0%	17.7%	36.4%
2026-10-07T21:04:48+00:00	21.0%	36.4%	50.0%	17.7%	36.4%
2026-10-07T21:50:02+00:00	21.0%	36.4%	50.0%	17.7%	36.4%
2026-10-07T22:35:09+00:00	21.0%	36.4%	50.0%	17.7%	36.4%
2026-10-07T23:20:22+00:00	21.0%	41.6%	58.8%	17.7%	36.4%
2026-10-08T00:05:31+00:00	21.0%	41.6%	58.8%	17.7%	36.4%
2026-10-08T00:50:51+00:00	21.0%	41.6%	58.8%	17.7%	36.4%
2026-10-08T01:36:03+00:00	25.9%	41.6%	58.8%	17.7%	36.4%
2026-10-08T02:21:11+00:00	25.9%	41.6%	58.8%	17.7%	36.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	59%	60.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	60.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	58.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
ICON	36%	56.1°F	9.8°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	55.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	53.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261014-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 07 · 08:09 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 60°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗