KMSP / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 08 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

42%

36%

26%

18%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 38.2¢Risks 38.25u

HRESNO 61.8¢Risks 61.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +61.75u · HRES −61.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	48.9%	—	—	86.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	75.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	72.4%	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	91.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	99.2%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	54.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	2.5%	23.8%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	8.7%	89.5%	1.3%	—	47.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	31.7%	91.3%	14.0%	—	62.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	33.0%	84.0%	40.9%	—	56.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	22.4%	91.3%	34.5%	—	55.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	55.0%	78.1%	56.6%	—	67.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	48.3%	76.7%	—	—	55.1%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	15.6%	73.1%	59.6%	—	60.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	55.4%	72.1%	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	47.2%	72.6%	38.2%	—	62.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	47.2%	70.8%	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	31.3%	67.8%	49.0%	—	66.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	37.2%	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	62.2%	74.1%	34.0%	—	60.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	39.5%	60.5%	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	43.5%	55.5%	19.0%	—	59.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	27.6%	67.5%	0.6%	—	61.1%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	32.0%	71.0%	13.4%	38.5%	48.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	25.3%	69.6%	23.4%	—	52.4%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	38.9%	64.6%	11.8%	22.7%	53.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	25.9%	70.9%	11.5%	—	47.4%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	22.0%	68.1%	10.1%	14.1%	60.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	30.0%	61.0%	10.4%	—	55.6%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	37.2%	54.3%	7.3%	11.5%	40.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	24.8%	64.8%	4.8%	—	35.2%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	13.4%	77.4%	6.6%	17.1%	5.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.6%	33.9%	0.2%	—	0.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	59%	60.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	60.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	58.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
ICON	36%	56.1°F	9.8°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	55.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	53.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261014-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 07 · 08:09 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 60°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗