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KMSP / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 15 · 07:03 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
98%
HRES
64%
WN2
45%
AIFS
44%
ICON
32%
Consensus
63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 64.6¢Risks 64.60u
VS
ICONNO 35.4¢Risks 35.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.40u · ICON −35.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 48.0% · 2026-10-14T15:12:17+00:00AIFS Single: 48.0% · 2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00AIFS Single: 48.0% · 2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00AIFS Single: 48.0% · 2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00AIFS Single: 48.0% · 2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00AIFS Single: 48.0% · 2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00AIFS Single: 40.0% · 2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00AIFS Single: 40.0% · 2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00AIFS Single: 40.0% · 2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00AIFS Single: 40.0% · 2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00AIFS Single: 40.0% · 2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00AIFS Single: 40.0% · 2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00AIFS Single: 40.0% · 2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00AIFS Single: 40.0% · 2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-15T04:02:10+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-14T15:12:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-15T04:02:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.9% · 2026-10-14T15:12:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.9% · 2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.9% · 2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.6% · 2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.6% · 2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.6% · 2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.6% · 2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.6% · 2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.6% · 2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.6% · 2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.6% · 2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.5% · 2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.5% · 2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.5% · 2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.5% · 2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.5% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.5% · 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.5% · 2026-10-15T04:02:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.5% · 2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.6% · 2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.6% · 2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.6% · 2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-10-14T15:12:17+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00IFS HRES: 35.9% · 2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00IFS HRES: 35.9% · 2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00IFS HRES: 35.9% · 2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00IFS HRES: 35.9% · 2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00IFS HRES: 63.7% · 2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00IFS HRES: 63.7% · 2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00IFS HRES: 63.7% · 2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00IFS HRES: 63.7% · 2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00IFS HRES: 63.7% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00IFS HRES: 63.7% · 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00IFS HRES: 63.7% · 2026-10-15T04:02:10+00:00IFS HRES: 63.7% · 2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00IFS HRES: 63.7% · 2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00IFS HRES: 63.7% · 2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00IFS HRES: 63.7% · 2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-14T15:12:17+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00ICON: 31.5% · 2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00ICON: 31.5% · 2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00ICON: 31.5% · 2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00ICON: 31.5% · 2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00ICON: 31.5% · 2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00ICON: 31.5% · 2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00ICON: 31.5% · 2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00ICON: 31.5% · 2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00ICON: 31.5% · 2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00ICON: 31.5% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00ICON: 31.5% · 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00ICON: 31.5% · 2026-10-15T04:02:10+00:00ICON: 31.5% · 2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00ICON: 31.5% · 2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00ICON: 31.5% · 2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00ICON: 31.5% · 2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:0010-14 15:1210-14 23:2910-15 07:03
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T15:12:17+00:0048.0%98.7%45.9%36.3%32.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:0048.0%98.7%45.9%36.3%32.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:0048.0%98.7%45.9%35.9%32.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:0048.0%98.7%44.6%35.9%32.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:0048.0%98.7%44.6%35.9%32.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:0048.0%98.7%44.6%35.9%32.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:0040.0%98.7%44.6%64.1%31.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:0040.0%98.7%44.6%64.1%31.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:0040.0%98.7%44.6%64.1%31.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:0040.0%98.7%44.6%64.1%31.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:0040.0%98.7%44.6%64.1%31.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:0040.0%97.7%40.5%63.7%31.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:0040.0%97.7%40.5%63.7%31.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:0040.0%97.7%40.5%63.7%31.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:0044.0%97.7%40.5%63.7%31.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:0044.0%97.7%40.5%63.7%31.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:0044.0%97.7%40.5%63.7%31.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:10+00:0044.0%97.7%40.5%63.7%31.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:0044.0%97.7%40.5%63.7%31.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:0044.0%97.7%44.6%63.7%31.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:0044.0%97.7%44.6%63.7%31.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:0044.0%97.7%44.6%63.7%31.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble98%61.7°F3.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS HRES64%55.8°F3.7°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
NWS forecast59%55.0°F2.2°F2026-10-15 03:00Pending
National Blend59%55.0°F2.2°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 245%54.1°F2.9°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
AIFS Single44%53.9°F4.0°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
ICON32%52.8°F3.5°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261015-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 55°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗