KMSP / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 15 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

64%

45%

44%

32%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 64.6¢Risks 64.60u

ICONNO 35.4¢Risks 35.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.40u · ICON −35.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	87.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	—	—	—	74.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	—	—	—	81.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	83.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	83.8%	—	—	68.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	64.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	89.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	49.4%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	99.6%	—	—	75.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	20.8%	100.0%	—	—	89.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	55.6%	49.3%	99.8%	64.4%	—	93.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	93.0%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	61.6%	91.3%	99.6%	79.5%	—	84.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	98.5%	59.8%	92.7%	—	85.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	100.0%	91.0%	76.4%	—	87.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	50.0%	29.3%	61.5%	—	84.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	59.3%	86.3%	—	—	28.1%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	93.0%	91.3%	67.0%	—	84.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	96.9%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	98.0%	28.9%	75.6%	—	78.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	99.6%	89.6%	—	—	76.2%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	93.8%	31.3%	46.1%	—	89.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	96.5%	53.0%	—	—	91.2%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	95.6%	38.8%	35.9%	—	83.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	96.5%	30.7%	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	90.6%	32.1%	58.7%	—	79.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	98.3%	28.6%	15.4%	—	68.5%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	50.0%	31.0%	27.0%	—	68.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	71.7%	51.2%	19.1%	—	51.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	45.0%	47.5%	33.1%	43.8%	41.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	50.0%	43.6%	50.0%	—	44.9%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	43.3%	25.1%	33.1%	13.4%	40.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	28.8%	18.2%	17.3%	—	31.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	33.1%	10.2%	13.8%	3.5%	10.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	29.8%	9.2%	7.5%	—	10.5%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	22.6%	9.6%	8.3%	2.9%	5.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	17.0%	9.2%	5.3%	—	2.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	61.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	55.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	55.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	55.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	54.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	53.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	32%	52.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261015-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 55°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗