KMSP / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

51%

42%

24%

23%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 51.6¢Risks 51.60u

WN2NO 48.4¢Risks 48.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +48.40u · WN2 −48.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T03:31:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T03:19:15+00:00	69.2%	60.6%	23.8%	78.0%	31.6%
2026-10-09T04:05:08+00:00	69.2%	60.6%	23.8%	78.0%	31.6%
2026-10-09T04:50:14+00:00	69.2%	60.6%	23.8%	78.0%	31.6%
2026-10-09T05:35:21+00:00	69.2%	60.6%	23.2%	78.0%	31.6%
2026-10-09T06:20:28+00:00	69.2%	60.6%	23.2%	78.0%	31.6%
2026-10-09T07:05:34+00:00	69.2%	60.6%	23.2%	78.0%	31.6%
2026-10-09T07:51:20+00:00	25.3%	60.6%	23.2%	60.8%	60.3%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00	25.3%	60.6%	23.2%	60.8%	60.3%
2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00	25.3%	60.6%	23.2%	60.8%	60.3%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00	25.3%	60.6%	23.2%	60.8%	60.3%
2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00	25.3%	60.6%	23.2%	60.8%	60.3%
2026-10-09T11:37:44+00:00	25.3%	60.6%	23.2%	60.8%	60.3%
2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00	25.3%	52.1%	23.2%	60.8%	60.3%
2026-10-09T13:08:27+00:00	25.3%	52.1%	23.2%	60.8%	60.3%
2026-10-09T13:53:33+00:00	14.4%	52.1%	23.2%	60.8%	60.3%
2026-10-09T14:42:09+00:00	14.4%	52.1%	23.2%	60.8%	60.8%
2026-10-09T15:27:33+00:00	14.4%	52.1%	23.2%	60.8%	60.8%
2026-10-09T16:13:18+00:00	14.4%	52.1%	23.2%	60.8%	60.8%
2026-10-09T16:58:28+00:00	14.4%	52.1%	23.2%	60.8%	60.8%
2026-10-09T17:43:34+00:00	14.4%	52.1%	23.3%	60.8%	60.8%
2026-10-09T18:28:40+00:00	14.4%	52.1%	23.3%	60.8%	60.8%
2026-10-09T19:13:45+00:00	14.4%	52.1%	23.3%	60.8%	60.8%
2026-10-09T19:58:55+00:00	5.5%	52.1%	23.3%	42.2%	79.9%
2026-10-09T20:44:03+00:00	5.5%	52.1%	23.3%	42.2%	79.9%
2026-10-09T21:29:21+00:00	5.5%	52.1%	23.3%	42.2%	79.9%
2026-10-09T22:14:38+00:00	5.5%	52.1%	23.3%	42.2%	79.9%
2026-10-09T22:59:44+00:00	5.5%	50.7%	23.3%	42.2%	79.9%
2026-10-09T23:44:50+00:00	5.5%	50.7%	23.3%	42.2%	79.9%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00	5.5%	50.7%	23.3%	42.2%	79.9%
2026-10-10T01:15:16+00:00	5.5%	50.7%	23.3%	42.2%	79.9%
2026-10-10T02:00:45+00:00	24.1%	50.7%	23.3%	42.2%	79.9%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00	24.1%	50.7%	23.3%	42.2%	79.9%
2026-10-10T03:31:23+00:00	24.1%	50.7%	23.3%	42.2%	79.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	80%	69.3°F	6.9°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-09 15:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	64.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	63.6°F	5.7°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	62.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	59.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	23%	60.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261015-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 09 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗