KMSP / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

51%

42%

24%

23%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 51.6¢Risks 51.60u

WN2NO 48.4¢Risks 48.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +48.40u · WN2 −48.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	36.8%	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	43.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	7.6%	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	87.7%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	1.0%	100.0%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	5.4%	90.1%	11.2%	—	47.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	96.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	38.5%	83.5%	20.4%	—	26.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	16.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	67.0%	7.0%	39.4%	—	25.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	95.7%	32.3%	14.0%	—	25.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	3.0%	0.8%	5.6%	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.5%	20.1%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	30.7%	26.9%	6.2%	—	17.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	43.7%	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	49.1%	0.4%	8.3%	—	9.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	69.1%	19.0%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	25.5%	0.4%	1.1%	—	17.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	32.6%	1.5%	—	—	18.3%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	26.8%	0.5%	0.4%	—	9.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	27.9%	0.2%	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	12.5%	0.2%	1.2%	—	5.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	33.6%	0.1%	0.0%	—	1.9%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	—	1.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.6%	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	80%	69.3°F	6.9°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-09 15:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	64.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	63.6°F	5.7°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	62.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	59.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	23%	60.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261015-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 09 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗