KMSP / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

39%

20%

20%

15%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.6¢Risks 47.55u

AIFSNO 52.4¢Risks 52.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.45u · AIFS −52.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T04:17:18+00:00	32.7%	86.2%	18.6%	77.1%	93.0%
2026-10-10T05:03:06+00:00	32.7%	86.2%	18.6%	77.1%	93.0%
2026-10-10T05:48:16+00:00	32.7%	86.2%	38.8%	77.1%	93.0%
2026-10-10T06:33:22+00:00	32.7%	86.2%	38.8%	77.1%	93.0%
2026-10-10T07:18:27+00:00	32.7%	86.2%	38.8%	77.1%	93.0%
2026-10-10T08:03:34+00:00	25.3%	86.2%	38.8%	77.1%	64.6%
2026-10-10T08:48:40+00:00	25.3%	86.2%	38.8%	77.1%	64.6%
2026-10-10T09:33:46+00:00	25.3%	86.2%	38.8%	77.1%	64.6%
2026-10-10T10:18:59+00:00	25.3%	86.2%	38.8%	77.1%	64.6%
2026-10-10T11:04:06+00:00	25.3%	86.2%	38.8%	77.1%	64.6%
2026-10-10T11:49:15+00:00	25.3%	82.1%	38.8%	77.1%	64.6%
2026-10-10T12:34:21+00:00	25.3%	82.1%	38.8%	77.1%	64.6%
2026-10-10T13:19:26+00:00	25.3%	82.1%	38.8%	77.1%	64.6%
2026-10-10T14:04:56+00:00	10.9%	82.0%	38.8%	77.1%	64.6%
2026-10-10T14:53:55+00:00	10.9%	82.0%	38.8%	77.1%	64.6%
2026-10-10T15:39:29+00:00	10.9%	82.5%	38.8%	77.1%	64.6%
2026-10-10T16:24:39+00:00	10.9%	82.5%	38.8%	77.1%	64.6%
2026-10-10T17:09:46+00:00	10.9%	82.5%	29.8%	77.1%	64.6%
2026-10-10T17:54:59+00:00	10.9%	82.5%	29.8%	77.1%	64.6%
2026-10-10T18:40:22+00:00	10.9%	82.5%	29.8%	77.1%	64.6%
2026-10-10T19:25:34+00:00	10.9%	82.5%	29.8%	77.1%	64.6%
2026-10-10T20:10:43+00:00	24.2%	82.5%	29.8%	77.1%	40.3%
2026-10-10T20:56:01+00:00	24.2%	82.5%	29.8%	77.1%	40.3%
2026-10-10T21:41:29+00:00	24.2%	82.5%	29.8%	77.1%	40.3%
2026-10-10T22:27:31+00:00	24.2%	82.5%	29.8%	75.3%	40.3%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	24.2%	83.3%	29.8%	75.3%	40.3%
2026-10-10T23:58:39+00:00	24.2%	83.3%	29.8%	75.3%	40.3%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	24.2%	83.3%	29.8%	75.3%	40.3%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	27.9%	83.3%	29.8%	75.3%	40.3%
2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00	27.9%	83.3%	29.8%	75.3%	40.3%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	27.9%	83.3%	29.8%	75.3%	40.3%
2026-10-11T03:44:56+00:00	27.9%	83.3%	29.8%	75.3%	40.3%
2026-10-13T04:15:55+00:00	35.6%	83.6%	37.4%	53.2%	45.9%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	35.6%	83.6%	37.4%	53.2%	45.9%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	35.6%	83.6%	38.4%	53.2%	45.9%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	35.6%	83.6%	38.4%	53.2%	45.9%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	35.6%	83.6%	38.4%	53.2%	45.9%
2026-10-13T08:03:30+00:00	30.5%	83.6%	38.4%	42.9%	27.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	30.5%	83.6%	38.4%	42.9%	27.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	30.5%	83.6%	38.4%	42.9%	27.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	30.5%	83.6%	38.4%	42.9%	27.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	30.5%	83.6%	38.4%	42.9%	27.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:37+00:00	30.5%	79.4%	22.0%	42.9%	27.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	30.5%	79.4%	22.0%	42.9%	27.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	30.5%	79.4%	22.0%	42.9%	27.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	20.8%	79.4%	22.0%	42.9%	27.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	20.8%	79.4%	22.0%	42.9%	27.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:29+00:00	20.8%	79.3%	22.0%	42.9%	27.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	20.8%	79.3%	22.0%	42.9%	27.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	20.8%	79.3%	22.0%	42.9%	27.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	20.8%	79.3%	22.0%	42.9%	27.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	20.8%	79.3%	22.0%	42.9%	27.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	20.8%	79.3%	22.0%	42.9%	27.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	25.7%	79.3%	22.0%	42.9%	20.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	25.7%	79.3%	22.0%	42.9%	20.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	25.7%	79.3%	22.0%	42.9%	20.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	25.7%	79.3%	22.0%	42.9%	20.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	25.7%	80.3%	19.5%	38.6%	20.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	25.7%	80.3%	19.5%	38.6%	20.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	25.7%	80.3%	19.5%	38.6%	20.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	14.8%	80.3%	19.5%	38.6%	20.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	14.8%	80.3%	19.5%	38.6%	20.3%
2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00	14.8%	80.3%	19.5%	38.6%	20.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	61.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	57.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	56.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	55.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	20%	53.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	53.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	52.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261016-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 10 · 04:17 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 57°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗