KMSP / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

39%

20%

20%

15%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.6¢Risks 47.55u

AIFSNO 52.4¢Risks 52.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.45u · AIFS −52.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	25.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	2.9%	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	87.8%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	42.2%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	18.9%	1.1%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	96.2%	9.9%	38.2%	—	52.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	43.4%	22.6%	98.6%	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	16.0%	6.3%	62.0%	—	51.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	18.4%	14.9%	82.1%	—	39.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	20.7%	6.9%	53.3%	—	30.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	12.3%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	34.6%	13.6%	27.7%	—	36.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	31.8%	17.8%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	31.4%	20.9%	36.4%	—	28.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	32.6%	17.7%	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	22.5%	18.3%	29.6%	—	25.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	28.2%	15.2%	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	15.1%	14.5%	22.7%	—	17.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	9.6%	17.6%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	7.7%	5.9%	14.3%	—	8.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	10.2%	6.7%	2.4%	—	7.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	6.1%	3.1%	12.1%	0.2%	7.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	6.6%	3.7%	17.5%	—	5.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	3.5%	5.2%	17.4%	0.1%	4.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	2.4%	7.7%	15.0%	—	4.6%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	2.6%	5.3%	11.3%	0.0%	3.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.3%	6.7%	5.8%	—	3.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.9%	7.8%	6.3%	0.0%	3.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.5%	6.0%	6.0%	—	2.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.2%	10.2%	2.6%	0.0%	0.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.6%	7.3%	1.9%	—	1.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	61.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	57.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	56.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	55.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	20%	53.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	53.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	52.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261016-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 10 · 04:17 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 57°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗