KMSP / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

44%

39%

38%

18%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 33.5¢Risks 33.45u

WN2NO 66.5¢Risks 66.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +66.55u · WN2 −66.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:02:10+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T15:41:29+00:00	39.7%	71.6%	26.8%	53.2%	79.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	39.7%	71.6%	26.8%	53.2%	79.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	39.7%	71.6%	30.5%	53.2%	79.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	39.7%	71.6%	30.5%	53.2%	79.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	39.7%	71.6%	30.5%	53.2%	79.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	39.7%	71.6%	30.5%	53.2%	79.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	40.6%	71.6%	30.5%	53.2%	66.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	40.6%	71.6%	30.5%	53.2%	66.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	40.6%	71.6%	30.5%	53.2%	66.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	40.6%	71.6%	30.5%	53.2%	66.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	40.6%	73.0%	28.6%	57.1%	66.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	40.6%	73.0%	28.6%	57.1%	66.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	40.6%	73.0%	28.6%	57.1%	66.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	27.9%	73.0%	28.6%	57.1%	66.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	27.9%	73.0%	28.6%	57.1%	66.8%
2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00	27.9%	73.0%	28.6%	57.1%	66.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:30+00:00	27.9%	73.0%	28.6%	57.1%	66.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	27.9%	73.0%	28.6%	57.1%	66.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	27.9%	73.0%	28.6%	57.1%	66.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	27.9%	73.0%	28.6%	57.1%	66.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:16+00:00	27.9%	73.0%	28.6%	57.1%	66.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	34.6%	73.0%	28.6%	57.1%	55.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:36+00:00	34.6%	73.0%	28.6%	57.1%	55.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	34.6%	73.0%	28.6%	57.1%	55.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	34.6%	73.0%	28.6%	57.1%	55.0%
2026-10-14T10:33:08+00:00	34.6%	73.0%	28.6%	36.9%	55.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	34.6%	55.0%	17.9%	36.9%	55.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	34.6%	55.0%	17.9%	36.9%	55.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	34.6%	55.0%	17.9%	36.9%	55.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	32.9%	55.0%	17.9%	36.9%	55.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	32.9%	55.0%	17.9%	36.9%	55.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:19+00:00	32.9%	55.0%	17.9%	36.9%	55.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	32.9%	55.0%	17.9%	36.9%	55.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	32.9%	55.0%	17.9%	36.9%	55.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	32.9%	55.0%	14.3%	36.9%	55.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	32.9%	55.0%	14.3%	36.9%	55.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	32.9%	55.0%	14.3%	36.9%	55.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	36.3%	55.0%	14.3%	38.6%	38.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	36.3%	55.0%	14.3%	38.6%	38.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	36.3%	55.0%	14.3%	38.6%	38.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	36.3%	55.0%	14.3%	38.6%	38.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	36.3%	55.0%	14.3%	38.6%	38.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	36.3%	49.0%	17.9%	38.6%	38.1%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	36.3%	49.0%	17.9%	38.6%	38.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	36.3%	49.0%	17.9%	38.6%	38.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	43.5%	49.0%	17.9%	38.6%	38.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	43.5%	49.0%	17.9%	38.6%	38.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	43.5%	49.0%	17.9%	38.6%	38.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:10+00:00	43.5%	49.0%	17.9%	38.6%	38.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	61.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	61.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	60.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	60.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	38%	60.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	58.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261017-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗