KMSP / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

44%

39%

38%

18%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 33.5¢Risks 33.45u

WN2NO 66.5¢Risks 66.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +66.55u · WN2 −66.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	3.1%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	2.3%	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	19.4%	0.0%	1.4%	—	34.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	74.6%	—	37.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	62.7%	5.4%	62.0%	—	35.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	65.5%	9.3%	30.9%	—	44.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	83.2%	26.5%	75.5%	—	47.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	35.8%	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	70.1%	31.4%	73.1%	—	47.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	86.5%	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	54.6%	40.9%	56.4%	—	37.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	47.2%	44.3%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	48.0%	37.6%	62.4%	—	22.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	36.3%	31.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	31.2%	31.2%	46.9%	—	21.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.8%	30.7%	26.2%	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	23.8%	23.8%	43.5%	0.0%	16.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	20.6%	31.5%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	15.3%	27.0%	41.9%	—	14.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	10.2%	25.3%	38.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	8.5%	25.6%	36.5%	0.7%	15.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	6.0%	29.1%	39.8%	—	16.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	4.6%	42.0%	31.9%	0.3%	14.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	7.6%	44.4%	22.1%	—	13.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	19.1%	48.5%	19.1%	0.4%	11.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	17.2%	45.5%	11.2%	—	6.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	12.5%	45.3%	6.1%	0.2%	6.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	24.1%	45.1%	11.5%	—	9.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	61.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	61.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	60.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	60.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	38%	60.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	58.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261017-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗