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KMSP / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
95%
AIFS
90%
HRES
73%
EPS
73%
ICON
49%
Consensus
77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 72.0¢Risks 71.95u
VS
ICONNO 28.0¢Risks 28.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.05u · ICON −28.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 64.0% · 2026-10-11T07:32:08+00:00AIFS Single: 64.0% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00AIFS Single: 64.0% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00AIFS Single: 64.0% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00AIFS Single: 64.0% · 2026-10-11T10:33:51+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-17T04:41:44+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00AIFS Single: 92.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00AIFS Single: 92.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00AIFS Single: 92.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00AIFS Single: 92.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00AIFS Single: 92.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00AIFS Single: 92.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00AIFS Single: 92.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 92.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00AIFS Single: 90.2% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00AIFS Single: 90.2% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.0% · 2026-10-11T07:32:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.0% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.0% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.0% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.0% · 2026-10-11T10:33:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-17T04:41:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-10-11T07:32:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-10-11T10:33:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.2% · 2026-10-17T04:41:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.0% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00IFS HRES: 93.3% · 2026-10-11T07:32:08+00:00IFS HRES: 93.3% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00IFS HRES: 93.3% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00IFS HRES: 93.3% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00IFS HRES: 93.3% · 2026-10-11T10:33:51+00:00IFS HRES: 70.4% · 2026-10-17T04:41:44+00:00IFS HRES: 70.4% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00IFS HRES: 70.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00IFS HRES: 70.4% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-10-17T04:41:44+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:0010-11 07:3210-17 07:4410-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T07:32:08+00:0064.0%67.0%80.7%93.3%—
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:0064.0%67.0%80.7%93.3%—
2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:0064.0%67.0%80.7%93.3%—
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:0064.0%67.0%80.7%93.3%—
2026-10-11T10:33:51+00:0064.0%67.0%80.7%93.3%—
2026-10-17T04:41:44+00:0091.2%70.0%92.2%70.4%13.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:0091.2%70.0%92.7%70.4%13.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:0091.2%70.0%92.7%70.4%13.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:0091.2%70.0%92.7%70.4%13.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:0092.2%70.0%92.7%73.2%48.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:0092.2%70.0%92.7%73.2%48.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:0092.2%70.0%92.7%73.2%48.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:0092.2%70.0%92.7%73.2%48.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:0092.2%70.0%92.7%73.2%48.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:0092.2%73.0%95.0%73.2%48.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:0092.2%73.0%95.0%73.2%48.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:0092.2%73.0%95.0%73.2%48.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:0090.2%73.0%95.0%73.2%48.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:0090.2%72.6%95.0%73.2%48.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 295%66.3°F2.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single90%66.6°F3.9°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS HRES73%63.8°F3.7°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble73%63.6°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast56%62.0°F3.1°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
ICON49%61.4°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend44%61.0°F3.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗