KMSP / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

90%

73%

73%

49%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 72.0¢Risks 71.95u

ICONNO 28.0¢Risks 28.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.05u · ICON −28.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	52.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	0.8%	—	—	70.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	0.3%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	4.8%	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	84.7%	61.8%	4.7%	—	75.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	75.7%	79.0%	67.7%	—	74.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	94.8%	87.1%	88.2%	—	82.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	73.2%	63.3%	82.6%	—	75.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	92.0%	75.5%	76.2%	—	62.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	47.4%	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	83.3%	88.7%	89.9%	—	59.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	72.1%	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	72.6%	91.7%	74.1%	—	63.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	76.9%	89.6%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	53.9%	89.3%	63.4%	—	54.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	60.9%	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	54.1%	89.2%	57.2%	—	51.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	42.6%	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	41.3%	86.9%	54.4%	—	53.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	65.4%	37.8%	88.2%	0.1%	—	52.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	69.0%	14.7%	92.8%	51.2%	—	58.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	72.7%	35.9%	93.8%	54.8%	—	59.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	64.6%	96.7%	59.9%	26.6%	61.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	66.3%	97.8%	63.9%	—	55.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	59.3%	97.6%	50.0%	31.9%	51.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	80.9%	78.9%	98.2%	54.2%	—	61.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	89.2%	99.3%	72.0%	50.0%	72.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	72.8%	91.4%	98.5%	54.5%	—	60.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	92.3%	99.3%	68.3%	69.7%	73.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	99.6%	99.8%	95.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	66.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	66.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	63.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	63.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
ICON	49%	61.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	61.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗