KMSP / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

81%

61%

61%

48%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 64.5¢Risks 64.55u

WN2NO 35.5¢Risks 35.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +35.45u · WN2 −35.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:21+00:00	22.6%	60.6%	49.2%	81.1%	16.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	22.6%	60.6%	49.2%	81.1%	16.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	22.6%	60.6%	49.2%	81.1%	16.8%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	22.6%	60.6%	49.2%	81.1%	16.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00	22.6%	60.6%	49.2%	81.1%	16.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:32+00:00	22.6%	60.6%	35.8%	81.1%	16.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00	22.6%	59.9%	35.8%	81.1%	16.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	22.6%	59.9%	35.8%	81.1%	16.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	52.9%	59.9%	35.8%	81.1%	16.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	52.8%	59.9%	35.9%	81.1%	16.9%
2026-10-12T15:27:16+00:00	52.8%	59.9%	35.9%	81.1%	16.9%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	52.8%	59.0%	35.9%	81.1%	16.9%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	52.8%	59.0%	35.9%	81.1%	16.9%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	52.8%	59.0%	40.5%	81.1%	16.9%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	52.8%	59.0%	40.5%	81.1%	16.9%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	52.8%	59.0%	40.5%	81.1%	16.9%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	54.3%	59.0%	40.5%	80.7%	80.7%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	54.3%	59.0%	40.5%	80.7%	80.7%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	54.3%	59.0%	40.5%	80.7%	80.7%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	54.3%	59.0%	40.5%	80.7%	80.7%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	54.3%	59.0%	48.4%	80.7%	80.7%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	54.3%	59.0%	48.4%	80.7%	80.7%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	54.3%	59.0%	48.4%	80.7%	80.7%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	54.3%	61.4%	48.4%	80.7%	80.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	61.2%	61.4%	48.4%	80.7%	80.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	61.2%	61.4%	48.4%	80.7%	80.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	61.2%	61.4%	48.4%	80.7%	80.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	81%	72.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	81%	75.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	61%	67.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	68.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	66.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261019-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 67°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗