KMSP / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

81%

61%

61%

48%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 64.5¢Risks 64.55u

WN2NO 35.5¢Risks 35.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +35.45u · WN2 −35.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	24.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	28.4%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	71.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	0.9%	62.6%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	36.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.8%	76.5%	44.4%	4.7%	—	52.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	48.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	73.4%	44.2%	17.9%	—	44.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	22.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	21.1%	32.3%	20.0%	—	36.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	27.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	33.0%	28.1%	32.3%	—	26.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.3%	15.2%	32.2%	26.5%	—	25.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	4.5%	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	21.4%	27.7%	13.1%	—	16.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	8.5%	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	4.3%	36.4%	18.4%	—	12.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	10.8%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	1.8%	35.7%	14.7%	—	11.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	6.3%	50.0%	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	2.8%	51.0%	16.3%	—	11.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	5.0%	51.1%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	10.9%	53.3%	15.5%	0.0%	9.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	8.3%	47.8%	0.0%	—	7.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	5.1%	50.0%	6.5%	7.6%	8.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	10.8%	50.0%	6.2%	—	7.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	13.0%	50.0%	5.5%	—	8.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	12.8%	33.7%	4.0%	—	6.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	9.5%	30.7%	2.8%	3.0%	5.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	21.1%	35.0%	4.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	31.8%	38.6%	4.4%	6.3%	10.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	24.8%	38.1%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	81%	72.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	81%	75.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	61%	67.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	68.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	66.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261019-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 67°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗