KMSP / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 7.6¢Risks 3.80u

EPSNO 92.4¢Risks 46.20u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.20u · EPS −46.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T04:24:10+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:22+00:00	5.0%	24.4%	16.8%	53.8%	7.1%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	5.0%	24.4%	16.8%	53.8%	7.1%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	5.0%	24.4%	16.8%	53.8%	7.1%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	5.0%	24.4%	16.8%	53.8%	7.1%
2026-10-12T10:50:11+00:00	5.0%	24.4%	16.8%	53.8%	7.1%
2026-10-12T11:35:32+00:00	5.0%	24.4%	8.5%	53.8%	7.1%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00	5.0%	18.8%	8.5%	53.8%	7.1%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	5.0%	18.8%	8.5%	53.8%	7.1%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	20.5%	18.8%	8.5%	53.8%	7.1%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	20.7%	18.8%	8.6%	53.8%	7.2%
2026-10-12T15:27:16+00:00	20.7%	18.8%	8.6%	53.8%	7.2%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	20.7%	18.2%	8.6%	53.8%	7.2%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	20.7%	18.2%	8.6%	53.8%	7.2%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	20.7%	18.2%	10.6%	53.8%	7.2%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	20.7%	18.2%	10.6%	53.8%	7.2%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	20.7%	18.2%	10.6%	53.8%	7.2%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	21.7%	18.2%	10.6%	53.1%	64.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	21.7%	18.2%	10.6%	53.1%	64.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	21.7%	18.2%	10.6%	53.1%	64.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	21.7%	18.2%	10.6%	53.1%	64.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	21.7%	18.2%	14.8%	53.1%	64.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	21.7%	18.2%	14.8%	53.1%	64.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	21.7%	18.2%	14.8%	53.1%	64.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	21.7%	20.5%	14.8%	53.1%	64.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	27.3%	20.5%	14.8%	53.1%	64.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	27.3%	20.5%	14.8%	53.1%	64.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	27.3%	20.5%	14.8%	53.1%	64.2%
2026-10-13T04:15:56+00:00	27.3%	20.5%	14.8%	53.1%	64.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	27.3%	20.5%	14.8%	53.1%	64.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	27.3%	20.5%	10.6%	53.1%	64.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	27.3%	20.5%	10.6%	53.1%	64.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	27.3%	20.5%	10.6%	53.1%	64.2%
2026-10-13T08:03:30+00:00	19.3%	20.5%	10.6%	23.2%	60.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	19.3%	20.5%	10.6%	23.2%	60.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	19.3%	20.5%	10.6%	23.2%	60.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	19.3%	20.5%	10.6%	23.2%	60.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	19.3%	20.5%	10.6%	23.2%	60.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:37+00:00	19.3%	13.6%	11.0%	23.2%	60.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	19.3%	13.6%	11.0%	23.2%	60.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	19.3%	13.6%	11.0%	23.2%	60.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	20.9%	13.6%	11.1%	23.2%	61.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	20.9%	13.6%	11.1%	23.2%	61.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:30+00:00	20.9%	13.0%	11.1%	23.2%	61.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	20.9%	13.0%	11.1%	23.2%	61.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	20.9%	13.0%	11.9%	23.2%	61.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	20.9%	13.0%	11.9%	23.2%	61.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	20.9%	13.0%	11.9%	23.2%	61.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	20.9%	13.0%	11.9%	23.2%	61.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	22.0%	13.0%	11.9%	23.2%	21.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	22.0%	13.0%	11.9%	23.2%	21.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	22.0%	13.0%	11.9%	23.2%	21.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	22.0%	13.0%	11.9%	23.2%	21.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	22.0%	13.6%	12.4%	27.6%	21.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	22.0%	13.6%	12.4%	27.6%	21.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	22.0%	13.6%	12.4%	27.6%	21.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	19.3%	13.6%	12.4%	27.6%	21.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	19.3%	13.6%	12.4%	27.6%	21.4%
2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00	19.3%	13.6%	12.4%	27.6%	21.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:30+00:00	19.3%	13.6%	12.4%	27.6%	21.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	19.3%	13.6%	12.4%	27.6%	21.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	19.3%	13.6%	12.4%	27.6%	21.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	19.3%	13.6%	12.4%	27.6%	21.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:16+00:00	19.3%	13.6%	12.4%	27.6%	21.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	18.2%	13.6%	12.4%	27.6%	21.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:36+00:00	18.2%	13.6%	12.4%	27.6%	21.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	18.2%	13.6%	12.4%	27.6%	21.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	18.2%	13.6%	12.4%	27.6%	21.7%
2026-10-14T10:33:11+00:00	18.2%	13.6%	12.4%	10.6%	21.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	18.2%	3.2%	6.6%	10.6%	21.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	18.2%	3.2%	6.6%	10.6%	21.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	18.2%	3.2%	6.6%	10.6%	21.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	18.2%	3.2%	6.6%	10.6%	21.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	18.3%	3.2%	6.6%	10.6%	21.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:19+00:00	18.3%	3.2%	6.6%	10.6%	21.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	18.3%	3.2%	6.6%	10.6%	21.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	18.3%	3.2%	6.6%	10.6%	21.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	18.3%	3.2%	6.9%	10.6%	21.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	18.3%	3.2%	6.9%	10.6%	21.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	18.3%	3.2%	6.9%	10.6%	21.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	19.3%	3.2%	6.9%	15.7%	11.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	19.3%	3.2%	6.9%	15.7%	11.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	19.3%	3.2%	6.9%	15.7%	11.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	19.3%	3.2%	6.9%	15.7%	11.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	19.3%	3.2%	6.9%	15.7%	11.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	19.3%	2.5%	7.2%	15.7%	11.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	19.3%	2.5%	7.2%	15.7%	11.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	19.3%	2.5%	7.2%	15.7%	11.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	18.8%	2.5%	7.2%	15.7%	11.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	18.8%	2.5%	7.2%	15.7%	11.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	18.8%	2.5%	7.2%	15.7%	11.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:10+00:00	18.8%	2.5%	7.2%	15.7%	11.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	18.8%	2.5%	7.2%	15.7%	11.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	18.8%	2.5%	7.2%	15.7%	11.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	18.8%	2.5%	7.2%	15.7%	11.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	18.8%	2.5%	7.2%	15.7%	11.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:44+00:00	18.1%	2.5%	7.2%	7.5%	7.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	18.1%	2.5%	7.2%	7.5%	7.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	18.1%	2.5%	7.2%	7.5%	7.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	18.1%	2.5%	7.2%	7.5%	7.7%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	18.1%	2.5%	7.2%	7.5%	7.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:20+00:00	18.1%	2.5%	4.8%	7.5%	7.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	18.1%	0.6%	4.8%	7.5%	7.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00	18.1%	0.6%	4.8%	7.5%	7.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	12.0%	0.6%	4.8%	7.5%	7.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	12.0%	0.6%	4.8%	7.5%	7.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:00	12.0%	0.7%	4.8%	7.5%	7.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:01+00:00	12.0%	0.7%	4.8%	7.5%	7.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	12.0%	0.7%	5.6%	7.5%	7.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	12.0%	0.7%	5.6%	7.5%	7.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	12.0%	0.7%	5.6%	7.5%	7.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	12.0%	0.7%	5.6%	7.5%	7.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	13.3%	0.7%	5.6%	5.1%	1.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:29+00:00	13.3%	0.7%	5.6%	5.1%	1.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	13.3%	0.7%	5.6%	5.1%	1.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	13.3%	0.7%	5.6%	5.1%	1.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	13.3%	0.4%	5.6%	5.1%	1.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	13.3%	0.4%	5.6%	5.1%	1.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	13.3%	0.4%	5.6%	5.1%	1.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	14.8%	0.4%	5.6%	5.1%	1.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	14.8%	0.4%	5.6%	5.1%	1.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00	14.8%	0.4%	5.6%	5.1%	1.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	14.8%	0.4%	5.6%	5.1%	1.4%
2026-10-16T04:24:10+00:00	14.8%	0.4%	5.6%	5.1%	1.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	15%	66.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	67.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	65.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	63.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	1%	60.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	64.4°F	2.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261019-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗