KMSP / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 7.6¢Risks 3.80u

EPSNO 92.4¢Risks 46.20u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.20u · EPS −46.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	8.3%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.1%	30.0%	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	11.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	43.7%	15.3%	0.5%	—	20.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	38.5%	14.4%	3.3%	—	14.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	3.9%	7.8%	3.6%	—	9.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	7.5%	5.7%	7.2%	—	5.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	1.9%	6.6%	4.7%	—	4.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.3%	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	2.9%	4.5%	1.3%	—	1.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	0.6%	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.2%	6.6%	2.0%	—	1.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	0.8%	5.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.1%	5.6%	1.2%	—	0.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.3%	10.5%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.1%	10.3%	1.2%	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.1%	9.6%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.5%	9.9%	0.9%	0.0%	0.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.3%	7.1%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.1%	7.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.3%	6.6%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.4%	5.9%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.3%	2.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	1.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.5%	1.7%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.1%	1.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	0.5%	1.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	15%	66.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	67.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	65.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	63.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	1%	60.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	64.4°F	2.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261019-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗