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KMSP / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
69%
AIFS
61%
ICON
58%
WN2
41%
EPS
41%
Consensus
54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 55.0¢Risks 55.05u
VS
EPSNO 45.0¢Risks 44.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +44.95u · EPS −44.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-13T11:50:37+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-13T15:41:30+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00AIFS Single: 61.2% · 2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00AIFS Single: 61.2% · 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00AIFS Single: 61.2% · 2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-13T11:50:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-13T15:41:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.8% · 2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.8% · 2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.8% · 2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.8% · 2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.8% · 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.8% · 2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.2% · 2026-10-13T11:50:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.2% · 2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.2% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.3% · 2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.3% · 2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.3% · 2026-10-13T15:41:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.3% · 2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.3% · 2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.3% · 2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.3% · 2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.3% · 2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.3% · 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.3% · 2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-13T11:50:37+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-13T15:41:30+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00IFS HRES: 69.3% · 2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00IFS HRES: 69.3% · 2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00IFS HRES: 69.3% · 2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00IFS HRES: 69.3% · 2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00IFS HRES: 69.3% · 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00IFS HRES: 69.3% · 2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-13T11:50:37+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-13T15:41:30+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:0010-13 11:5010-13 19:2710-14 02:59
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T11:50:37+00:0082.7%39.9%41.2%43.7%15.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:0082.7%39.9%41.2%43.7%15.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:0082.7%39.9%41.2%43.7%15.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:0072.1%39.9%41.3%43.7%15.9%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:0072.1%39.9%41.3%43.7%15.9%
2026-10-13T15:41:30+00:0072.1%39.9%41.3%43.7%15.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:0072.1%39.9%41.3%43.7%15.9%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:0072.1%39.9%43.6%43.7%15.9%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:0072.1%39.9%43.6%43.7%15.9%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:0072.1%39.9%43.6%43.7%15.9%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:0072.1%39.9%43.6%43.7%15.9%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:0077.3%39.9%43.6%43.7%58.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:0077.3%39.9%43.6%43.7%58.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:0077.3%39.9%43.6%43.7%58.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:0077.3%39.9%43.6%43.7%58.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:0077.3%40.8%41.3%69.3%58.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:0077.3%40.8%41.3%69.3%58.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:0077.3%40.8%41.3%69.3%58.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:0061.2%40.8%41.3%69.3%58.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:0061.2%40.8%41.3%69.3%58.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:0061.2%40.8%41.3%69.3%58.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES69%72.7°F6.3°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
AIFS Single61%71.1°F5.6°F2026-10-13 18:00Pending
ICON58%71.5°F9.9°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
National Blend54%70.0°F4.5°F2026-10-13 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 241%68.4°F5.0°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble41%68.5°F4.3°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261020-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 13 · 11:50 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 70°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗