KMSP / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

61%

58%

41%

41%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 55.0¢Risks 55.05u

EPSNO 45.0¢Risks 44.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +44.95u · EPS −44.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	47.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	—	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	51.3%	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	14.1%	—	—	46.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.0%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	62.0%	0.7%	34.8%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	55.6%	33.0%	14.9%	1.8%	—	40.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	57.3%	26.6%	32.3%	—	29.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	42.4%	43.2%	22.8%	—	21.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	39.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	12.7%	27.4%	12.7%	—	17.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	20.7%	20.7%	21.9%	—	15.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	2.5%	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	13.1%	36.3%	16.1%	—	15.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	6.9%	28.7%	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	6.6%	26.6%	21.6%	—	17.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	9.2%	35.2%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	10.2%	36.6%	20.3%	—	15.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	10.0%	41.1%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	6.7%	38.8%	12.3%	0.0%	10.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	13.2%	37.5%	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	15.5%	37.1%	12.5%	—	13.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	15.4%	30.5%	0.0%	—	8.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	12.1%	30.0%	7.2%	0.0%	8.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	16.0%	26.3%	8.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	28.7%	28.7%	10.0%	8.0%	14.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	28.0%	20.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	69%	72.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	71.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	58%	71.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	70.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	68.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	68.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261020-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 13 · 11:50 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 70°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗