KMSP / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

29%

25%

22%

12%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 29.6¢Risks 29.60u

EPSNO 70.4¢Risks 70.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +70.40u · EPS −70.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:30+00:00	77.8%	42.6%	26.9%	37.6%	13.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	77.8%	42.6%	26.9%	37.6%	13.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	77.8%	42.6%	26.9%	37.6%	13.6%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	77.8%	42.6%	26.9%	37.6%	13.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	77.8%	42.6%	26.9%	37.6%	13.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	54.3%	32.1%	33.7%	63.6%	54.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	54.3%	32.1%	33.7%	63.6%	54.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	54.3%	32.1%	33.7%	63.6%	54.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	54.3%	32.1%	33.7%	63.6%	54.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:16+00:00	54.3%	32.1%	33.7%	63.6%	54.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	36.7%	32.1%	33.7%	63.6%	69.5%
2026-10-14T08:16:36+00:00	36.7%	32.1%	33.7%	63.6%	69.5%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	36.7%	32.1%	33.7%	63.6%	69.5%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	36.7%	32.1%	33.7%	63.6%	69.5%
2026-10-14T10:33:12+00:00	36.7%	32.1%	33.7%	41.6%	69.5%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	36.7%	10.8%	30.1%	41.6%	69.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	36.7%	10.8%	30.1%	41.6%	69.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	36.7%	10.8%	30.1%	41.6%	69.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	56.0%	10.8%	30.1%	41.6%	69.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	56.6%	10.9%	30.3%	41.6%	69.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:19+00:00	56.6%	11.4%	30.3%	41.6%	69.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	56.6%	11.4%	30.3%	41.6%	69.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	56.6%	11.4%	30.3%	41.6%	69.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	56.6%	11.4%	23.9%	41.6%	69.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	56.6%	11.4%	23.9%	41.6%	69.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	56.6%	11.4%	23.9%	41.6%	69.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	47.8%	11.4%	23.9%	30.3%	59.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	47.8%	11.4%	23.9%	30.3%	59.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	47.8%	11.4%	23.9%	30.3%	59.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	47.8%	11.4%	23.9%	30.3%	59.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	47.8%	11.4%	23.9%	30.3%	59.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	47.8%	8.8%	24.7%	30.3%	59.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	47.8%	8.8%	24.7%	30.3%	59.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	47.8%	8.8%	24.7%	30.3%	59.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	53.0%	8.8%	24.7%	30.3%	59.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	53.0%	8.8%	24.7%	30.3%	59.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	53.0%	8.8%	24.7%	30.3%	59.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:10+00:00	53.0%	8.8%	24.7%	30.3%	59.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	53.0%	8.8%	24.7%	30.3%	59.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	53.0%	8.8%	28.2%	30.3%	59.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	53.0%	8.8%	28.2%	30.3%	59.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	53.0%	8.8%	28.2%	30.3%	59.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:44+00:00	28.7%	8.8%	28.2%	29.0%	24.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	28.7%	8.8%	28.2%	29.0%	24.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	28.7%	8.8%	28.2%	29.0%	24.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	28.7%	8.8%	28.2%	29.0%	24.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	28.7%	8.8%	28.2%	29.0%	24.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:20+00:00	28.7%	8.8%	21.8%	29.0%	24.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	28.7%	12.4%	21.8%	29.0%	24.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00	28.7%	12.4%	21.8%	29.0%	24.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	46.8%	12.4%	21.8%	29.0%	24.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	46.8%	12.4%	21.8%	29.0%	25.2%
2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:00	46.8%	12.4%	21.8%	29.0%	25.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	70.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	67.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	66.5°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	67.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	66.8°F	3.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗