KMSP / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

29%

25%

22%

12%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 29.6¢Risks 29.60u

EPSNO 70.4¢Risks 70.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +70.40u · EPS −70.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	45.0%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	10.7%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.4%	0.4%	28.8%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	48.6%	26.9%	11.2%	1.1%	—	34.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	50.0%	21.0%	26.0%	—	23.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	35.1%	35.8%	17.4%	—	16.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	9.0%	21.2%	9.0%	—	13.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	15.2%	15.2%	16.2%	—	11.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	1.5%	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	9.0%	28.4%	11.3%	—	10.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	4.3%	21.5%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	4.1%	19.6%	15.4%	—	12.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	5.9%	26.9%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	6.5%	27.9%	14.2%	—	10.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	6.3%	31.7%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	4.0%	29.4%	7.8%	0.0%	6.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	8.3%	27.9%	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	9.9%	27.3%	7.7%	—	8.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	9.7%	21.4%	0.0%	—	4.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	7.2%	20.7%	4.0%	0.0%	4.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	9.7%	17.5%	4.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	19.1%	19.1%	5.5%	4.3%	8.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	18.2%	12.8%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	70.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	67.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	66.5°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	67.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	66.8°F	3.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗