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KMSP / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
78%
WN2
71%
HRES
62%
EPS
45%
ICON
31%
Consensus
58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 54.4¢Risks 54.40u
VS
ICONNO 45.6¢Risks 45.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.60u · ICON −45.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-17T04:41:46+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00AIFS Single: 77.8% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00AIFS Single: 77.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-10-17T04:41:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-17T04:41:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.4% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.4% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.4% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.4% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-17T04:41:46+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00IFS HRES: 61.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00IFS HRES: 61.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00IFS HRES: 61.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00IFS HRES: 61.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS HRES: 61.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 61.8% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00IFS HRES: 61.8% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 61.8% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00IFS HRES: 61.8% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00IFS HRES: 61.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00ICON: 45.4% · 2026-10-17T04:41:46+00:00ICON: 45.4% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00ICON: 45.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00ICON: 45.4% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:46+00:0058.8%43.2%77.5%32.6%45.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:0058.8%43.2%73.7%32.6%45.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:0058.8%43.2%73.7%32.6%45.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:0058.8%43.2%73.7%32.6%45.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:0079.0%43.2%73.7%61.8%31.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:0079.0%43.2%73.7%61.8%31.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:0079.0%43.2%73.7%61.8%31.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:0079.0%43.2%73.7%61.8%31.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:0079.0%43.2%73.7%61.8%31.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:0079.0%44.7%71.4%61.8%31.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:0079.0%44.7%71.4%61.8%31.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:0079.0%44.7%71.4%61.8%31.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:0077.8%44.7%71.4%61.8%31.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:0077.7%44.7%71.3%61.8%31.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single78%72.0°F4.6°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 271%70.6°F3.7°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES62%70.0°F5.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend56%69.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%69.0°F4.5°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble45%68.1°F3.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON31%66.1°F4.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261021-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗