KMSP / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

71%

62%

45%

31%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 54.4¢Risks 54.40u

ICONNO 45.6¢Risks 45.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.60u · ICON −45.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	37.9%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	—	—	43.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	7.5%	—	61.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	75.4%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	60.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	24.0%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	28.4%	—	50.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	27.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	2.5%	15.1%	—	43.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	81.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	67.7%	60.4%	0.6%	29.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	32.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	60.1%	61.6%	35.0%	44.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	66.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	58.3%	49.2%	53.8%	43.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	33.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	20.1%	14.0%	26.1%	39.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	46.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	23.8%	33.8%	39.3%	40.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	4.9%	56.8%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.9%	18.4%	52.6%	19.0%	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	11.6%	75.0%	—	38.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	6.1%	81.6%	10.6%	36.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	49.0%	35.2%	81.0%	—	32.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	56.8%	48.0%	76.0%	12.1%	37.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	35.3%	78.9%	—	31.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	44.9%	81.0%	6.7%	31.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	42.6%	78.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	59.7%	79.4%	9.0%	37.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	66.4%	83.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	78%	72.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	71%	70.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	70.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	68.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	31%	66.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261021-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗