KMSP / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

28%

22%

13%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 23.6¢Risks 23.65u

EPSNO 76.4¢Risks 76.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +76.35u · EPS −76.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:12+00:00	45.7%	38.1%	31.5%	45.0%	13.2%
2026-10-16T04:24:10+00:00	29.5%	5.0%	38.2%	39.3%	53.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	29.5%	5.0%	34.2%	39.3%	53.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	29.5%	5.0%	34.2%	39.3%	53.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	29.5%	5.0%	34.2%	39.3%	53.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	29.5%	5.0%	34.2%	39.3%	53.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	22.8%	5.0%	34.2%	39.3%	17.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	22.8%	5.0%	34.2%	39.3%	17.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	22.8%	5.0%	34.2%	39.3%	17.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	22.8%	5.0%	34.2%	39.3%	17.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:17+00:00	22.8%	6.4%	27.2%	39.3%	17.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	22.8%	6.4%	27.2%	39.3%	17.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	22.8%	6.4%	27.2%	39.3%	17.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:00	22.8%	6.4%	27.2%	39.3%	17.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	19.3%	6.4%	27.2%	32.6%	18.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:31+00:00	19.3%	7.7%	27.2%	32.6%	18.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	19.3%	7.7%	27.2%	32.6%	18.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	19.3%	7.7%	27.2%	32.6%	18.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	19.3%	7.7%	38.5%	32.6%	18.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	19.3%	7.7%	38.5%	32.6%	18.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	19.3%	7.7%	38.5%	32.6%	18.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:01+00:00	24.0%	7.7%	38.5%	32.6%	21.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	24.0%	7.7%	38.5%	32.6%	21.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	24.0%	7.7%	38.5%	32.6%	21.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	24.0%	7.7%	38.5%	32.6%	21.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	24.0%	7.7%	38.5%	12.7%	21.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:31+00:00	24.0%	6.0%	41.3%	12.7%	21.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	24.0%	6.0%	41.3%	12.7%	21.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	24.0%	6.0%	41.3%	12.7%	21.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	27.9%	6.0%	41.3%	12.7%	21.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	27.9%	6.0%	41.3%	12.7%	21.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	27.9%	6.0%	41.3%	12.7%	21.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	27.9%	6.0%	41.3%	12.7%	21.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	71.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	69.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	22%	67.8°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	65.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	68.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗