KMSP / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

28%

22%

13%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 23.6¢Risks 23.65u

EPSNO 76.4¢Risks 76.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +76.35u · EPS −76.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	19.2%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	2.1%	—	38.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	53.6%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	8.9%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	11.0%	—	26.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	10.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	0.4%	4.3%	—	19.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	58.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	40.3%	33.0%	0.1%	10.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	11.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	31.7%	33.0%	13.2%	18.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	36.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	28.9%	21.6%	25.1%	17.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	11.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	5.1%	3.0%	7.5%	14.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	18.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	6.1%	10.4%	13.4%	14.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	0.6%	24.6%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	3.8%	20.8%	3.9%	13.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	1.8%	41.1%	—	11.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	0.7%	49.1%	1.5%	10.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	9.2%	47.2%	—	8.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	15.3%	39.4%	1.6%	9.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	8.4%	42.0%	—	7.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	12.3%	43.9%	0.6%	6.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	10.6%	39.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	19.8%	39.2%	0.7%	7.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	24.0%	43.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	71.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	69.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	22%	67.8°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	65.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	68.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗