KMSP / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

54%

31%

30%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 36.5¢Risks 36.50u

EPSNO 63.5¢Risks 63.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.50u · EPS −63.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:43+00:00	64.2%	7.0%	17.1%	26.7%	28.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	64.2%	7.0%	17.1%	26.7%	28.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	64.2%	7.0%	17.1%	26.7%	28.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	64.2%	7.0%	45.2%	26.7%	28.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	64.2%	7.0%	45.2%	26.7%	28.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	64.2%	7.0%	45.2%	26.7%	28.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	61.1%	7.0%	45.2%	30.2%	7.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	61.1%	7.0%	45.2%	30.2%	7.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	61.1%	7.0%	45.2%	30.2%	7.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	61.1%	7.0%	45.2%	30.2%	7.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	61.1%	7.0%	45.2%	30.2%	7.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	61.1%	6.3%	41.3%	30.2%	7.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	61.1%	6.3%	41.3%	30.2%	7.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	61.1%	6.3%	41.3%	30.2%	7.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	54.0%	6.3%	41.3%	30.2%	7.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	54.0%	6.3%	41.3%	30.2%	7.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	54.0%	6.3%	41.3%	30.2%	7.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	56.9%	7.3%	39.4%	26.1%	31.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	56.9%	7.3%	39.4%	26.1%	31.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	56.9%	7.3%	34.4%	26.1%	31.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00	56.9%	7.3%	34.4%	26.1%	31.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	56.9%	7.3%	34.4%	26.1%	31.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	56.9%	7.3%	34.4%	26.1%	31.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	65.3%	7.3%	34.4%	30.2%	31.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	65.3%	7.3%	34.4%	30.2%	31.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	65.3%	7.3%	34.4%	30.2%	31.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	65.3%	7.3%	34.4%	30.2%	31.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	65.3%	7.7%	54.3%	30.2%	31.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	65.3%	7.7%	54.3%	30.2%	31.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	65.3%	7.7%	54.3%	30.2%	31.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	65.3%	7.7%	54.3%	30.2%	31.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	65.3%	7.7%	54.3%	30.2%	31.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	65.3%	7.7%	54.3%	30.2%	31.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	65.3%	7.7%	54.3%	30.2%	31.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	65%	76.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	74.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	31%	72.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	71.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	69.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗