KMSP / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

54%

31%

30%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 36.5¢Risks 36.50u

EPSNO 63.5¢Risks 63.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.50u · EPS −63.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.1%	—	4.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	2.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	19.8%	—	2.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	15.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	0.1%	3.9%	—	6.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	18.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	36.9%	7.9%	0.9%	7.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	45.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	3.9%	13.6%	0.5%	7.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	3.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	5.0%	53.0%	2.9%	9.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	47.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	10.8%	54.8%	8.1%	5.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	24.3%	—	9.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	0.9%	41.7%	2.5%	10.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	0.5%	41.5%	—	7.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	18.4%	41.3%	3.8%	11.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	17.8%	27.9%	—	6.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	17.2%	51.8%	2.2%	12.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	20.3%	42.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	30.4%	42.3%	4.4%	14.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	35.3%	47.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	65%	76.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	74.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	31%	72.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	71.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	69.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗