KMSP / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

82%

53%

42%

24%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 58.9¢Risks 58.85u

HRESNO 41.1¢Risks 41.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +41.15u · HRES −41.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:47+00:00	88.8%	40.0%	80.0%	67.9%	59.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	88.8%	40.0%	83.7%	67.9%	59.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	88.8%	40.0%	83.7%	67.9%	59.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	88.8%	40.0%	83.7%	67.9%	59.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00	96.2%	40.0%	83.7%	58.4%	61.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	96.2%	40.0%	83.7%	58.4%	61.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00	96.2%	40.0%	83.7%	58.4%	61.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	96.2%	40.0%	83.7%	58.4%	61.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	96.2%	40.0%	83.7%	58.4%	61.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	96.2%	37.4%	82.1%	58.4%	61.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	96.2%	37.4%	82.1%	58.4%	61.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	96.2%	37.4%	82.1%	58.4%	61.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	94.4%	37.4%	82.1%	58.3%	61.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	94.4%	37.4%	82.1%	58.4%	61.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:44+00:00	94.4%	37.4%	82.1%	58.4%	61.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	94.4%	37.4%	82.1%	58.4%	61.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	94.4%	37.4%	82.1%	58.4%	61.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	94.4%	37.4%	82.6%	58.4%	61.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	94.4%	37.4%	82.6%	58.4%	61.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	94.4%	37.4%	82.6%	58.4%	61.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	94.4%	37.4%	82.6%	34.7%	45.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	94.4%	37.4%	82.6%	34.7%	45.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	94.4%	37.4%	82.6%	34.7%	45.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	94.4%	37.4%	82.6%	34.7%	45.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	94.4%	37.4%	82.6%	34.7%	45.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	94.4%	35.2%	76.0%	34.7%	45.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	94.4%	35.2%	76.0%	34.7%	45.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	94.4%	35.2%	76.0%	34.7%	45.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	95.0%	35.2%	76.0%	34.7%	45.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	95.0%	35.2%	76.0%	34.7%	45.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	95.0%	35.2%	76.0%	34.7%	45.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	93.3%	53.1%	78.9%	54.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	93.3%	53.1%	78.9%	54.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	93.3%	53.1%	78.2%	54.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00	93.3%	53.1%	78.2%	54.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	93.3%	53.1%	78.2%	54.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	93.3%	53.1%	78.2%	54.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	90.2%	53.1%	78.2%	23.9%	42.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	90.2%	53.1%	78.2%	23.9%	42.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	90.2%	53.1%	78.2%	23.9%	42.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	90.2%	53.1%	78.2%	23.9%	42.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	90.2%	53.1%	82.2%	23.9%	42.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	90.2%	53.1%	82.2%	23.9%	42.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	90.2%	53.1%	82.2%	23.9%	42.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	93.8%	53.1%	82.2%	23.9%	42.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	93.8%	53.1%	82.2%	23.9%	42.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	93.8%	53.1%	82.2%	23.9%	42.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	93.8%	53.1%	82.2%	23.9%	42.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	77.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	92%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	73.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	69.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	42%	68.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	65.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261023-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 70°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗