KMSP / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

82%

53%

42%

24%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 58.9¢Risks 58.85u

HRESNO 41.1¢Risks 41.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +41.15u · HRES −41.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	1.3%	—	15.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	26.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	56.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	63.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	10.4%	—	26.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	85.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	1.1%	67.0%	—	43.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	7.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	35.6%	73.7%	1.4%	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	85.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	37.8%	51.5%	36.4%	40.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	68.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	83.1%	19.5%	82.6%	40.2%	48.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	78.3%	—	22.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	85.5%	48.4%	54.8%	57.9%	41.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	60.5%	—	31.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	20.7%	77.5%	8.7%	34.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	80.5%	27.4%	66.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	84.4%	67.8%	81.0%	17.8%	37.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	64.9%	86.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	77.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	92%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	73.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	69.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	42%	68.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	65.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261023-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 70°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗