KMSP / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

92%

72%

68%

50%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 72.1¢Risks 72.10u

EPSNO 27.9¢Risks 27.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +27.90u · EPS −27.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	92.8%	36.1%	84.1%	59.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:32+00:00	92.8%	36.5%	84.1%	59.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	92.8%	36.5%	84.1%	59.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	92.8%	36.5%	84.1%	59.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	92.8%	36.5%	87.2%	59.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	92.8%	36.5%	87.2%	59.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	92.8%	36.5%	87.2%	59.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:01+00:00	88.5%	36.5%	87.2%	59.8%	56.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	88.5%	36.5%	87.2%	59.8%	56.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	88.5%	36.5%	87.2%	59.8%	56.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	88.5%	36.5%	87.2%	59.8%	56.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	88.5%	36.5%	87.2%	62.2%	56.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:31+00:00	88.5%	33.6%	74.1%	62.2%	56.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	88.5%	33.6%	74.1%	62.2%	56.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	88.5%	33.6%	74.1%	62.2%	56.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	85.2%	33.6%	74.1%	62.2%	56.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	85.2%	33.6%	74.1%	62.2%	56.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	85.2%	33.6%	74.1%	62.2%	56.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	85.2%	33.6%	74.1%	62.2%	56.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:02+00:00	92.8%	28.4%	68.8%	29.3%	40.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	92.8%	28.4%	77.3%	29.3%	40.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	92.8%	28.4%	77.3%	29.3%	40.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	92.8%	28.4%	77.3%	29.3%	40.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	92.8%	28.4%	77.3%	29.3%	40.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:18+00:00	94.2%	28.4%	77.3%	47.9%	59.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	94.2%	28.4%	77.3%	47.9%	59.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	94.2%	28.4%	77.3%	47.9%	59.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	94.2%	28.4%	77.3%	47.9%	59.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	94.2%	28.4%	77.3%	47.9%	59.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	94.2%	42.7%	71.2%	47.9%	59.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:27+00:00	94.2%	42.7%	71.2%	47.9%	59.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	94.2%	42.7%	71.2%	47.9%	59.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	90.2%	42.7%	71.2%	47.9%	59.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00	90.2%	42.7%	71.2%	47.9%	59.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:00	90.9%	42.7%	75.2%	18.9%	36.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	90.9%	42.7%	80.3%	18.9%	36.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	90.9%	42.7%	80.3%	18.9%	36.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	90.9%	42.7%	80.3%	18.9%	36.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00	94.2%	42.7%	80.3%	68.4%	71.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	94.2%	42.7%	80.3%	68.4%	71.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	94.2%	42.7%	80.3%	68.4%	71.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	94.2%	42.7%	80.3%	68.4%	71.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00	94.2%	42.7%	80.3%	68.4%	71.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00	94.2%	50.0%	91.8%	68.4%	71.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	77.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	75.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	72%	73.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	72.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	70.5°F	4.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	70.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗