KMSP / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

92%

72%

68%

50%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 72.1¢Risks 72.10u

EPSNO 27.9¢Risks 27.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +27.90u · EPS −27.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	13.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	0.9%	—	12.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	21.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	50.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	57.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	7.8%	—	21.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	81.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	0.7%	60.7%	—	37.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	79.7%	—	5.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	29.2%	67.7%	0.9%	43.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	80.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	31.0%	44.2%	29.7%	33.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	61.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	77.8%	14.6%	77.2%	33.0%	40.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	80.5%	—	72.1%	—	16.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	80.5%	40.5%	46.8%	50.0%	33.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	52.4%	—	24.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	64.7%	15.2%	70.7%	5.8%	27.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	74.0%	20.8%	58.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	78.6%	59.6%	74.5%	12.7%	29.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	56.3%	81.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	77.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	75.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	72%	73.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	72.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	70.5°F	4.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	70.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗