KMSP / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST15%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

22%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 28.8¢Risks 28.80u

HRESNO 71.2¢Risks 71.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +71.20u · HRES −71.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	4.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	0.1%	—	2.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	4.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	17.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	22.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	0.8%	—	3.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	45.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	0.0%	22.8%	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	0.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	5.4%	27.5%	0.0%	10.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	41.5%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	5.5%	10.6%	5.1%	6.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	20.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	1.4%	34.4%	5.6%	8.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	27.9%	—	1.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	7.5%	10.0%	11.5%	5.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	12.2%	—	2.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	1.1%	23.8%	0.2%	3.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	1.8%	14.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	29.9%	14.1%	25.5%	0.7%	3.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	11.6%	31.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	55%	77.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	73.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	21%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	9%	68.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	69.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	65.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗