KMSP / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

90%

85%

74%

46%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.3¢Risks 68.35u

EPSNO 31.6¢Risks 31.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.65u · EPS −31.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:02+00:00	87.4%	38.8%	65.2%	63.3%	28.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	87.4%	38.8%	75.9%	63.3%	28.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	87.4%	38.8%	75.9%	63.3%	28.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	87.4%	38.8%	75.9%	63.3%	28.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	87.4%	38.8%	75.9%	63.3%	28.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:18+00:00	88.5%	38.8%	75.9%	43.4%	72.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	88.5%	38.8%	75.9%	43.4%	72.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	88.5%	38.8%	75.9%	43.4%	72.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	88.5%	38.8%	75.9%	43.4%	72.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	88.5%	38.8%	75.9%	43.4%	72.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	88.5%	32.4%	73.9%	43.4%	72.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:27+00:00	88.5%	32.4%	73.9%	43.4%	72.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	88.5%	32.4%	73.9%	43.4%	72.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	67.8%	32.6%	74.0%	43.4%	72.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00	67.8%	32.6%	74.0%	43.4%	72.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:00	79.2%	32.4%	81.0%	63.6%	47.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	79.2%	32.4%	83.8%	63.6%	47.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	79.2%	32.4%	83.8%	63.6%	47.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	79.2%	32.4%	83.8%	63.6%	47.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00	89.5%	32.4%	83.8%	74.4%	85.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	89.5%	32.4%	83.8%	74.4%	85.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	89.5%	32.4%	83.8%	74.4%	85.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	89.5%	32.4%	83.8%	74.4%	85.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00	89.5%	32.4%	83.8%	74.4%	85.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00	89.5%	45.7%	91.0%	74.4%	85.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	76.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	76.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	85%	76.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	74.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	70.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	69.9°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261024-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗