KMSP / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

90%

85%

74%

46%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.3¢Risks 68.35u

EPSNO 31.6¢Risks 31.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.65u · EPS −31.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	22.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	16.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	10.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	22.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	28.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	64.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	62.2%	—	27.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	33.9%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	0.5%	68.2%	—	36.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	71.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	3.2%	25.7%	0.5%	38.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	69.3%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	54.4%	39.9%	46.4%	29.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	22.7%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	21.1%	61.3%	17.4%	28.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	25.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	77.0%	45.2%	39.0%	39.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	83.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	76.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	76.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	85%	76.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	74.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	70.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	69.9°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261024-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗