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KMSP / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
62%
ICON
61%
HRES
41%
WN2
14%
AIFS
4%
Consensus
25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 32.8¢Risks 32.80u
VS
AIFSNO 67.2¢Risks 67.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +67.20u · AIFS −67.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00ICON: 60.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00ICON: 60.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00ICON: 60.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 60.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00ICON: 60.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:003.8%61.8%13.7%41.4%60.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:003.8%61.8%13.7%41.4%60.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:003.8%61.8%13.7%41.4%60.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:003.8%61.8%13.7%41.4%60.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:003.8%61.8%13.7%41.4%60.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble62%64.7°F7.3°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON61%65.2°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend52%63.0°F9.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES41%61.1°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 214%56.5°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
AIFS Single4%52.3°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261026-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 63°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗