KMSP / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

61%

41%

14%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 32.8¢Risks 32.80u

AIFSNO 67.2¢Risks 67.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +67.20u · AIFS −67.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	10.9%	22.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	19.3%	57.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	2.2%	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	3.2%	42.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.4%	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	37.4%	46.6%	16.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	63.5%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	62%	64.7°F	7.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	61%	65.2°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	63.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	61.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	56.5°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	52.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261026-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 63°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗