KMSY / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

23%

20%

17%

10%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 17.5¢Risks 8.75u

HRESNO 82.5¢Risks 41.25u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +41.25u · HRES −41.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:27:00+00:00	55.2%	76.3%	89.0%	72.9%	72.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	55.2%	78.1%	89.0%	72.9%	72.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	55.2%	78.1%	75.8%	72.9%	72.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	55.2%	78.1%	75.8%	72.9%	72.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	55.2%	78.1%	75.8%	72.9%	72.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	55.2%	78.1%	75.8%	72.9%	72.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	59.7%	78.1%	75.8%	49.4%	84.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	59.7%	78.1%	75.8%	49.4%	84.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	59.7%	78.1%	75.8%	49.4%	84.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	59.7%	78.1%	75.8%	49.4%	84.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	59.7%	78.1%	76.5%	49.4%	84.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	59.7%	78.1%	76.5%	49.4%	84.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	59.7%	78.1%	76.5%	49.4%	84.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	59.7%	78.1%	76.5%	49.4%	84.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	50.8%	78.1%	76.5%	49.4%	84.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	50.8%	78.1%	76.5%	49.4%	84.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	50.8%	78.1%	76.5%	49.4%	84.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:16+00:00	27.1%	19.6%	29.5%	14.5%	43.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:56+00:00	27.1%	19.6%	29.5%	14.5%	43.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	27.1%	19.6%	29.5%	14.5%	43.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	27.1%	19.6%	18.8%	14.5%	43.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	27.1%	19.6%	18.8%	14.5%	43.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	27.1%	19.6%	18.8%	14.5%	43.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	25.7%	19.6%	18.8%	10.0%	23.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	25.7%	19.6%	18.8%	10.0%	23.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	25.7%	19.6%	18.8%	10.0%	23.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	25.7%	19.6%	18.8%	10.0%	23.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	25.7%	19.6%	18.8%	10.0%	23.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	25.7%	19.6%	17.3%	10.0%	23.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	25.7%	19.6%	17.3%	10.0%	23.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	25.7%	19.6%	17.3%	10.0%	23.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	25.0%	19.6%	17.3%	10.0%	23.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	25.0%	19.6%	17.3%	10.0%	23.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	25.0%	19.6%	17.3%	10.0%	23.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
National Blend	45%	76.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.2016
AIFS Single	25%	73.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0625
ICON	23%	73.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0548
IFS Ensemble	20%	74.7°F	2.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0384
WeatherNext 2	17%	73.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0299
IFS HRES	10%	70.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0100

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261018-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗