KMSY / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

23%

20%

17%

10%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 17.5¢Risks 8.75u

HRESNO 82.5¢Risks 41.25u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +41.25u · HRES −41.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	30.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.7%	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	3.2%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	1.1%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	58.4%	20.9%	26.9%	—	34.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	57.3%	54.4%	50.0%	39.2%	—	46.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	51.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	75.5%	56.1%	47.7%	—	35.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	50.8%	70.5%	30.1%	—	26.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	76.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	55.0%	62.3%	17.8%	—	16.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	38.2%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	29.1%	39.6%	16.7%	—	5.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	31.8%	20.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	11.5%	17.2%	14.9%	—	3.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	15.4%	10.8%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	11.1%	24.7%	4.9%	—	2.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	13.0%	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	9.8%	32.1%	10.8%	—	2.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	10.6%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	16.2%	8.5%	3.8%	—	1.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	12.3%	8.7%	0.0%	—	1.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	10.5%	9.0%	4.0%	—	1.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	9.2%	16.7%	5.8%	—	1.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	12.4%	19.1%	4.9%	4.9%	1.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	8.2%	15.0%	3.7%	—	1.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	7.4%	18.2%	2.4%	5.7%	0.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	8.6%	10.4%	2.3%	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	7.8%	8.9%	2.7%	7.3%	0.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	8.6%	5.1%	1.8%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	6.1%	7.1%	3.1%	6.6%	0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.3%	7.9%	3.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
National Blend	45%	76.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.2016
AIFS Single	25%	73.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0625
ICON	23%	73.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0548
IFS Ensemble	20%	74.7°F	2.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0384
WeatherNext 2	17%	73.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0299
IFS HRES	10%	70.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0100

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261018-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗