KMSY / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≤ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

57%

38%

27%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 35.1¢Risks 35.10u

EPSNO 64.9¢Risks 64.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +64.90u · EPS −64.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:52+00:00	26.4%	3.3%	8.3%	52.4%	19.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	26.4%	7.0%	21.0%	52.4%	19.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	26.4%	7.0%	21.0%	52.4%	19.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:20+00:00	26.4%	7.0%	21.0%	52.4%	19.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	31.6%	7.0%	21.0%	52.4%	19.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	31.6%	7.0%	21.0%	52.4%	19.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:16+00:00	31.6%	6.4%	21.0%	52.4%	19.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:56+00:00	31.6%	6.4%	21.0%	52.4%	19.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	31.6%	6.4%	21.0%	52.4%	19.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	31.6%	6.4%	32.4%	52.4%	19.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	31.6%	6.4%	32.4%	52.4%	19.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	31.6%	6.4%	32.4%	52.4%	19.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	33.2%	6.4%	32.4%	61.0%	37.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	33.2%	6.4%	32.4%	61.0%	37.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	33.2%	6.4%	32.4%	61.0%	37.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	33.2%	6.4%	32.4%	61.0%	37.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	33.2%	6.4%	32.4%	61.0%	37.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	33.2%	6.4%	34.3%	61.0%	37.8%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	33.2%	6.4%	34.3%	61.0%	37.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	33.2%	6.4%	34.3%	61.0%	37.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	34.0%	6.4%	34.3%	61.0%	37.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	34.0%	6.4%	34.3%	61.0%	37.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	34.0%	6.4%	34.3%	61.0%	37.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:07+00:00	34.0%	6.4%	34.3%	61.0%	37.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	34.0%	6.4%	34.3%	61.0%	37.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	34.0%	6.4%	26.8%	61.0%	37.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	34.0%	6.4%	26.8%	61.0%	37.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:00	34.0%	6.4%	26.8%	61.0%	37.8%
2026-10-15T07:49:39+00:00	35.5%	6.4%	26.8%	58.0%	43.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	35.5%	6.4%	26.8%	58.0%	43.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	35.5%	6.4%	26.8%	58.0%	43.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	35.5%	6.4%	26.8%	58.0%	43.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	35.5%	6.4%	26.8%	58.0%	43.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00	35.5%	6.4%	25.7%	58.0%	43.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00	35.5%	7.1%	25.7%	58.0%	43.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00	35.5%	7.1%	25.7%	58.0%	43.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	30.4%	7.8%	25.7%	58.0%	43.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	30.4%	7.8%	25.7%	58.0%	43.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:07+00:00	30.4%	7.8%	25.7%	58.0%	43.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	30.4%	7.8%	25.7%	58.0%	43.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	30.4%	7.8%	22.9%	58.0%	43.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:43+00:00	30.4%	7.8%	22.9%	58.0%	43.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	30.4%	7.8%	22.9%	58.0%	43.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	30.4%	7.8%	22.9%	58.0%	43.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	36.3%	7.8%	22.9%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	36.3%	7.8%	22.9%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	36.3%	7.8%	22.9%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	36.3%	7.8%	22.9%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	36.3%	7.8%	28.6%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	36.3%	7.8%	28.6%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	36.3%	7.8%	28.6%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	30.4%	7.8%	28.6%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	30.4%	7.8%	28.6%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	30.4%	7.8%	28.6%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	30.4%	7.8%	28.6%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:06+00:00	30.4%	7.8%	28.6%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	30.4%	7.8%	22.0%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	30.4%	7.8%	22.0%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	30.4%	7.8%	22.0%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	32.9%	7.8%	22.0%	58.9%	37.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	32.9%	7.8%	22.0%	58.9%	37.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	32.9%	7.8%	22.0%	58.9%	37.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	32.9%	7.8%	22.0%	58.9%	37.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	32.9%	7.8%	22.0%	58.9%	37.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00	32.9%	7.4%	28.1%	58.9%	37.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	32.9%	7.4%	28.1%	58.9%	37.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	32.9%	7.4%	28.1%	58.9%	37.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:28+00:00	32.0%	7.4%	28.1%	60.6%	37.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:45+00:00	32.0%	7.4%	28.1%	60.6%	37.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:29+00:00	32.0%	7.4%	28.1%	60.6%	37.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	32.0%	7.4%	28.1%	60.6%	37.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	32.0%	7.4%	28.1%	60.6%	37.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	32.0%	7.4%	28.1%	60.6%	37.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	32.0%	7.4%	28.1%	60.6%	37.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	32.0%	7.4%	28.1%	60.6%	37.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:59+00:00	32.0%	7.4%	28.1%	60.6%	45.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:27+00:00	32.0%	7.4%	28.1%	60.6%	45.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	32.0%	7.4%	28.1%	60.6%	45.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	32.0%	7.4%	28.1%	60.6%	45.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	32.0%	7.4%	28.1%	55.8%	45.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:29+00:00	32.0%	7.4%	28.1%	55.8%	45.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	32.0%	7.4%	28.1%	55.8%	45.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	32.0%	7.4%	28.1%	55.8%	45.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	29.4%	7.4%	28.1%	55.8%	45.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	29.4%	7.4%	28.1%	55.8%	45.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	29.4%	7.4%	28.1%	55.8%	45.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	29.4%	7.4%	28.1%	55.8%	45.5%
2026-10-17T04:41:38+00:00	29.4%	7.4%	28.1%	55.8%	45.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	29.4%	7.4%	24.9%	55.8%	45.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	29.4%	7.4%	24.9%	55.8%	45.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	29.4%	7.4%	24.9%	55.8%	45.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:26+00:00	26.3%	7.4%	24.9%	60.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	26.3%	7.4%	24.9%	60.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:36+00:00	26.3%	7.4%	24.9%	60.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	26.3%	7.4%	24.9%	60.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	26.3%	7.4%	24.9%	60.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:04+00:00	26.3%	9.4%	26.8%	60.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	26.3%	9.4%	26.8%	60.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	26.3%	9.4%	26.8%	60.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	31.5%	9.4%	26.8%	60.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	31.5%	9.4%	26.8%	60.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00	31.5%	8.6%	26.8%	60.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	31.5%	8.6%	26.8%	60.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	31.5%	8.6%	31.5%	60.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	31.5%	8.6%	31.5%	60.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	31.5%	8.6%	31.5%	60.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	31.5%	8.6%	31.5%	60.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	34.2%	8.6%	31.5%	61.6%	56.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	34.2%	8.6%	31.5%	61.6%	56.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	34.2%	8.6%	31.5%	61.6%	56.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	34.2%	8.6%	31.5%	61.6%	56.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	34.2%	8.6%	30.3%	61.6%	56.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	34.2%	8.6%	30.3%	61.6%	56.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	34.2%	8.6%	30.3%	61.6%	56.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	34.2%	8.6%	30.3%	61.6%	56.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	38.0%	8.6%	30.3%	61.6%	56.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	38.0%	8.6%	30.3%	61.6%	56.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	38.0%	8.6%	30.3%	61.6%	56.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:56+00:00	38.0%	8.6%	30.3%	61.6%	56.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	38.0%	8.6%	26.8%	61.6%	56.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	38.0%	8.6%	26.8%	61.6%	56.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	38.0%	8.6%	26.8%	61.6%	56.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	38.0%	8.6%	26.8%	61.6%	56.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	62%	70.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3795
ICON	57%	70.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3226
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1697
AIFS Single	38%	72.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1444
WeatherNext 2	27%	73.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0718
NWS forecast	24%	73.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0590
IFS Ensemble	9%	74.5°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0074

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 71°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261018-TMAX-LE71
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗