KMSY / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≤ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

57%

38%

27%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 35.1¢Risks 35.10u

EPSNO 64.9¢Risks 64.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +64.90u · EPS −64.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	93.0%	—	95.7%	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	85.8%	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	91.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	97.7%	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	89.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	92.5%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	13.7%	47.2%	39.6%	—	31.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	15.2%	17.9%	26.0%	—	20.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	16.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	5.0%	13.4%	18.4%	—	28.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	15.4%	6.2%	31.6%	—	35.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	12.0%	8.7%	45.0%	—	46.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	22.0%	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.8%	29.1%	20.2%	44.8%	—	70.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	25.7%	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	51.8%	41.8%	45.4%	—	74.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	43.4%	51.9%	—	—	93.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	50.0%	29.6%	67.0%	—	76.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	64.7%	45.0%	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	50.0%	20.4%	47.9%	—	74.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	46.8%	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	69.9%	35.1%	50.0%	65.9%	—	77.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	40.0%	47.8%	99.8%	—	76.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	41.9%	45.4%	61.5%	—	74.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	66.4%	42.8%	29.3%	52.4%	—	77.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	34.2%	24.6%	53.7%	53.7%	75.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	41.0%	28.0%	56.4%	—	75.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	40.7%	22.0%	61.9%	46.0%	80.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	35.0%	31.2%	59.7%	—	76.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	34.5%	31.8%	54.3%	35.8%	77.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	29.8%	39.5%	57.5%	—	82.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	81.9%	33.1%	30.3%	45.3%	31.7%	76.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	29.5%	25.4%	40.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	62%	70.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3795
ICON	57%	70.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3226
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1697
AIFS Single	38%	72.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1444
WeatherNext 2	27%	73.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0718
NWS forecast	24%	73.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0590
IFS Ensemble	9%	74.5°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0074

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 71°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261018-TMAX-LE71
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗