KMSY / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

54%

38%

37%

30%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 45.1¢Risks 45.15u

HRESNO 54.9¢Risks 54.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +54.85u · HRES −54.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:24+00:00	54.3%	52.7%	61.8%	34.1%	38.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	54.3%	52.7%	61.8%	34.1%	38.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	54.3%	52.7%	61.8%	34.1%	38.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	54.3%	52.7%	61.8%	34.1%	38.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	54.3%	34.5%	46.0%	34.1%	38.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	54.3%	34.5%	46.0%	34.1%	38.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	54.3%	34.5%	46.0%	34.1%	38.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	54.3%	34.5%	46.0%	34.1%	38.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	50.0%	34.5%	46.0%	34.1%	38.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	50.0%	36.9%	46.0%	34.1%	38.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	50.0%	36.9%	46.0%	34.1%	38.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	50.0%	36.9%	46.0%	34.1%	38.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	50.0%	36.9%	49.2%	34.1%	38.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	50.0%	36.9%	49.2%	34.1%	38.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	50.0%	36.9%	49.2%	34.1%	38.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	52.8%	36.9%	49.2%	34.1%	60.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	52.8%	36.9%	49.2%	34.1%	60.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	52.8%	36.9%	49.2%	34.1%	60.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	52.8%	36.9%	49.2%	34.1%	60.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	52.8%	36.9%	49.2%	29.6%	60.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	52.8%	36.9%	54.0%	29.6%	60.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	52.8%	36.9%	54.0%	29.6%	60.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	52.8%	36.9%	54.0%	29.6%	60.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	38.1%	36.9%	54.0%	29.6%	60.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	38.1%	36.9%	54.0%	29.6%	60.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	61%	85.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	83.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	83.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	80.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	81.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	79.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261020-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 83°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗