KMSY / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

54%

38%

37%

30%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 45.1¢Risks 45.15u

HRESNO 54.9¢Risks 54.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +54.85u · HRES −54.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	28.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	7.4%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	34.8%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	10.5%	14.3%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	37.6%	40.9%	3.6%	—	21.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	25.4%	48.5%	9.3%	—	10.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	44.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	18.9%	40.9%	16.9%	—	5.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	13.6%	26.8%	9.7%	—	5.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	25.1%	25.8%	15.2%	—	6.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	8.2%	5.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	26.9%	5.2%	12.7%	—	2.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	11.6%	7.8%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	14.4%	7.3%	16.0%	—	3.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	13.7%	5.6%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	11.1%	5.6%	7.5%	—	2.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	7.3%	5.1%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	7.8%	5.8%	7.4%	0.0%	1.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	8.3%	5.2%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.5%	5.0%	3.8%	—	1.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	6.0%	3.8%	0.0%	—	1.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	5.7%	5.1%	2.9%	0.0%	1.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	9.2%	3.5%	4.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	5.9%	5.2%	4.9%	0.7%	0.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.7%	2.1%	4.3%	—	0.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.4%	2.0%	4.3%	0.4%	0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.1%	1.8%	3.5%	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.1%	2.5%	1.6%	0.4%	0.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	3.7%	0.6%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	61%	85.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	83.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	83.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	80.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	81.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	79.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261020-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 83°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗