KMSY / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 10:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 10.1¢Risks 5.03u

EPSNO 90.0¢Risks 44.98u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.98u · EPS −44.98u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	2.7%	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	18.9%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	3.9%	5.8%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	19.9%	22.4%	1.0%	—	9.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	11.3%	27.9%	3.1%	—	3.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	7.3%	21.1%	6.3%	—	1.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	4.5%	11.1%	2.9%	—	1.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	9.7%	10.1%	4.9%	—	1.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.1%	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	10.1%	1.1%	3.6%	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	3.1%	1.8%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	3.9%	1.6%	4.6%	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.6%	1.1%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.5%	1.0%	1.5%	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.4%	0.9%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.4%	0.9%	1.3%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.5%	0.8%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	0.7%	0.5%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	0.6%	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.3%	0.3%	0.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	0.5%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	20%	81.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	79.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	79.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	77.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	75.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	78.7°F	2.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261020-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗