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KMSY / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
16%
WN2
10%
AIFS
5%
HRES
2%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 8.2¢Risks 4.10u
VS
EPSNO 91.8¢Risks 45.90u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.90u · EPS −45.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-10-13T08:03:25+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-14T10:32:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-13T08:03:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T10:32:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.6% · 2026-10-13T08:03:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.6% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.6% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.6% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.6% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.6% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.6% · 2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.6% · 2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.6% · 2026-10-14T10:32:53+00:00IFS HRES: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T08:03:25+00:00IFS HRES: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00IFS HRES: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00IFS HRES: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00IFS HRES: 5.0% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00IFS HRES: 5.0% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00IFS HRES: 5.0% · 2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00IFS HRES: 5.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00IFS HRES: 5.0% · 2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00IFS HRES: 2.4% · 2026-10-14T10:32:53+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-13T08:03:25+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00ICON: 33.2% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00ICON: 33.2% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00ICON: 33.2% · 2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00ICON: 33.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00ICON: 33.2% · 2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00ICON: 16.0% · 2026-10-14T10:32:53+00:0010-13 08:0310-14 04:3010-14 10:32
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T10:32:53+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T08:03:25+00:0012.7%1.2%15.6%6.5%15.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:0012.7%1.2%15.6%6.5%15.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:0012.7%1.2%15.6%6.5%15.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:0012.7%1.2%15.6%6.5%15.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:006.1%0.4%9.6%5.0%33.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:006.1%0.4%9.6%5.0%33.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:006.1%0.4%9.6%5.0%33.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:006.1%0.4%9.6%5.0%33.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:006.1%0.4%9.6%5.0%33.2%
2026-10-14T10:32:53+00:004.7%0.4%9.6%2.4%16.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON16%82.5°F7.0°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
NWS forecast10%82.0°F5.8°F2026-10-14 02:00Pending
WeatherNext 210%83.0°F5.0°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
AIFS Single5%80.6°F5.3°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS HRES2%76.5°F6.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend<1%82.0°F3.0°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%81.5°F3.0°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261020-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in New Orleans · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗