KMSY / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

33%

31%

29%

24%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 31.9¢Risks 15.95u

HRESNO 68.1¢Risks 34.05u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +34.05u · HRES −34.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	—	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	—	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	—	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	63.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	73.0%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	52.6%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	2.3%	31.8%	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	54.2%	33.6%	2.0%	—	28.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.5%	65.7%	26.0%	24.9%	—	27.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.5%	61.3%	33.0%	27.7%	—	23.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	57.1%	26.1%	28.8%	—	26.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	25.0%	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	50.8%	26.5%	25.8%	—	21.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	35.0%	28.8%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	53.5%	24.1%	26.9%	—	19.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	53.6%	22.9%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	44.5%	24.4%	20.3%	—	15.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	47.2%	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	36.6%	18.3%	27.9%	—	18.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	45.0%	20.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	33.0%	18.3%	23.5%	—	13.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	32.6%	17.6%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	37.1%	14.3%	29.2%	12.5%	20.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	18.3%	0.0%	—	13.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	40%	80.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	79.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	31%	79.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	80.3°F	2.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	78.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗