KMSY / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

41%

35%

32%

24%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 45.4¢Risks 45.35u

EPSNO 54.6¢Risks 54.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +54.65u · EPS −54.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00	46.5%	37.4%	46.0%	38.2%	20.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00	46.5%	24.8%	46.0%	38.2%	20.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00	46.5%	24.8%	46.0%	38.2%	20.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	37.6%	24.8%	46.1%	38.3%	20.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	37.6%	24.8%	46.1%	38.3%	20.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00	37.6%	24.3%	46.1%	38.3%	20.4%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	37.6%	24.3%	46.1%	38.3%	20.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	37.6%	24.3%	43.0%	38.3%	20.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:43+00:00	37.6%	24.3%	43.0%	38.3%	20.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	37.6%	24.3%	43.0%	38.3%	20.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	37.6%	24.3%	43.0%	38.3%	20.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	38.9%	24.3%	43.0%	31.4%	66.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	38.9%	24.3%	43.0%	31.4%	66.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	38.9%	24.3%	43.0%	31.4%	66.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	38.9%	24.3%	43.0%	31.4%	66.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	38.9%	24.3%	35.4%	31.4%	66.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	39.0%	24.3%	35.4%	31.5%	66.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	39.0%	24.3%	35.4%	31.5%	66.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	41.0%	24.3%	35.4%	31.5%	66.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	41.0%	24.3%	35.4%	31.5%	66.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	41.0%	24.3%	35.4%	31.5%	66.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	41.0%	24.3%	35.4%	31.5%	66.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	66%	86.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	41%	81.2°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	80.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	79.4°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	80.9°F	2.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261022-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 83°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗