KMSY / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

41%

35%

32%

24%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 45.4¢Risks 45.35u

EPSNO 54.6¢Risks 54.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +54.65u · EPS −54.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	67.6%	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	46.1%	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	1.5%	26.0%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	39.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	47.2%	27.5%	1.3%	—	23.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	58.7%	20.4%	19.4%	—	21.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	22.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	53.8%	26.4%	21.6%	—	18.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	49.2%	20.1%	22.4%	—	20.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	18.9%	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	42.5%	20.1%	19.5%	—	16.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	27.4%	22.0%	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	44.8%	17.8%	20.2%	—	14.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	44.6%	16.6%	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	35.6%	17.8%	14.4%	—	10.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	37.9%	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	27.9%	12.6%	20.3%	—	12.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	35.3%	14.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	24.3%	12.3%	16.3%	—	8.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	23.6%	11.6%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	27.3%	9.0%	20.6%	7.7%	13.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	11.8%	0.0%	—	8.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	66%	86.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	41%	81.2°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	80.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	79.4°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	80.9°F	2.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261022-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 83°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗